Scotiabank cuts Myriad Genetics target to $20, keeps outperform rating

Published 01/04/2025, 12:44
Scotiabank cuts Myriad Genetics target to $20, keeps outperform rating

On Tuesday, Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) analyst Sung Ji Nam revised the price target for Myriad Genetics (NASDAQ:MYGN) stock, reducing it to $20.00 from the previous $24.00, while maintaining a Sector Outperform rating. The adjustment follows the company’s 2025 revenue growth forecast, which anticipates low single-digit increases due to the UnitedHealthcare medical policy change regarding pharmacogenomics (PGx) panel testing. According to InvestingPro data, the stock currently trades at $8.87, near its 52-week low of $8.53, with 11 analysts recently revising their earnings expectations downward.

Nam noted that despite this policy change, Myriad Genetics’ guidance includes expectations for other segments of the business to grow in the double digits for the year, based on the midpoint of their projections. The analyst emphasized the company’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its Oncology and Women’s Health divisions, suggesting these areas could be more resilient under various U.S. political conditions, especially Oncology. The company generated revenue of $837.6 million in the last twelve months, with an impressive gross margin of 69.89%, demonstrating strong operational efficiency despite current challenges.

The report also highlighted Myriad Genetics’ focus on operational efficiency as a factor that could position the company to accelerate growth and enhance profitability in 2026 and beyond. Nam pointed out that for Myriad Genetics’ stock to regain momentum, consistent quarterly performance against current targets and timely launches of key products are crucial. These include the pre-launch of FirstGene by mid-2025, the expanded MyRisk panel in the second half of 2025, and the introductions of Precise Liquid and Precise MRD in 2026, followed by the full commercial launch of FirstGene in the same year.

The new price target of $20 is based on discounted cash flow analysis and implies approximately 2 times the 2026 estimated enterprise value to sales ratio, representing a roughly 36% discount compared to the peer group. Despite the reduced price target, the Sector Outperform rating indicates that Scotiabank continues to view Myriad Genetics favorably within its industry sector. InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently undervalued, with additional insights available in the comprehensive Pro Research Report, which offers detailed financial health metrics and growth potential analysis among 1,400+ top US stocks.

In other recent news, Myriad Genetics reported its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, showing a revenue of $211 million, which was slightly below the expected $213 million. The company achieved an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.03, aligning with analyst expectations. Despite these figures, Myriad Genetics experienced a 7% year-over-year revenue growth for the quarter, with a notable 11% growth in the domestic market. In terms of analyst actions, Piper Sandler upgraded Myriad Genetics stock to Overweight, setting a new price target of $12.50, while Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and JPMorgan revised their price targets to $16 and $12, respectively, maintaining their ratings of Equalweight and Underweight. Jefferies also adjusted its price target to $11, continuing its Underperform rating on the stock.

The company faces challenges with its Prolaris and GeneSight products, which have not seen significant changes, according to Jefferies. However, Myriad Genetics confirmed its 2025 guidance, projecting revenues between $840 million and $860 million, and is targeting double-digit revenue growth with new product launches in 2026. The recent CEO transition, with Sam Raha stepping into the role, is seen as a strategic move to guide the company through its current challenges and opportunities. Analysts from Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan highlighted concerns over potential disruptions from Electronic Medical (TASE:BLWV) Records (EMR) workflow changes and the ongoing reimbursement challenges with UnitedHealthcare. Despite these hurdles, Myriad Genetics maintains a strong liquidity position with $158 million and continues to focus on innovation and strategic partnerships to enhance its market position.

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