Stifel cuts Ameresco stock price target to $17, maintains Buy rating

On Monday, Stifel analysts adjusted their outlook on Ameresco stock (NYSE:AMRC), reducing the price target to $17.00 from the previous $18.00 while reiterating a Buy rating. The adjustment follows Ameresco’s first-quarter earnings report, which was released after the market closed on Thursday, May 5, 2025. Ameresco’s shares have outperformed the market, registering a 14.9% increase compared to the S&P 500’s modest 0.2% rise since the announcement of the results.

Ameresco’s strong first-quarter performance was highlighted by an adjusted EBITDA of $40.6 million, surpassing Stifel’s forecast of $34.7 million. The company’s effective execution of its business strategy was evident as it managed to reaffirm its full-year 2025 guidance despite facing some operational challenges. While InvestingPro data shows the company maintains a healthy current ratio of 1.57, it also reveals significant debt levels and cash burn concerns. Ameresco successfully addressed concerns regarding certain contract pauses and a cancellation, which have been effectively re-scoped.

Looking ahead, Ameresco has projected its 2025 adjusted EBITDA to range between $225 million and $245 million, marking a 4.3% year-over-year increase at the $235 million midpoint. This forecast outstrips Stifel’s own prediction of $225.3 million. The company’s reliance on federal contracts is also shifting, with the Federal Government currently representing approximately 30% of Ameresco’s total project backlog. However, federal contracts are anticipated to constitute less than 20% of the company’s 2025 Project revenue. InvestingPro subscribers can access 15+ additional ProTips and comprehensive financial metrics to better understand Ameresco’s growth trajectory and financial health.

Stifel’s maintained Buy rating reflects confidence in Ameresco’s ability to navigate its business landscape and deliver growth. The reduced price target takes into account the recent performance and future prospects of the company, aligning expectations with the current market conditions and Ameresco’s operational metrics. The firm’s analysis indicates continued support for the stock, despite the slight adjustment in the price target.

In other recent news, Ameresco reported impressive first-quarter 2025 earnings, surpassing expectations with $352.8 million in revenue and a narrower-than-expected loss of -$0.11 per share. The company’s strong performance was driven by an 18% year-over-year revenue growth and a 31% increase in energy asset revenue. Ameresco’s management reaffirmed their optimistic guidance for 2025, projecting $1.9 billion in revenue and $235 million in adjusted EBITDA. Additionally, the company clarified that previously canceled or paused federal projects are now back on track, which has bolstered confidence in their project pipeline.

Analyst firms have reacted to these developments with mixed adjustments to their price targets for Ameresco. Stifel maintained a Buy rating with an $18 target, while Piper Sandler reduced their target from $30 to $21, retaining an Overweight rating. Jefferies increased their target to $11 from $10, maintaining a Hold rating. These ratings reflect varying levels of optimism about the company’s future performance and market conditions.

Ameresco also addressed potential risks, such as tariffs and federal workforce reductions, stating that the impact would be minimal. The company has taken steps to mitigate these risks by securing most equipment on-site and negotiating contract terms to pass future costs onto customers. These strategic moves and strong first-quarter results indicate a positive start to the year for Ameresco.

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