Stifel lowers Chipotle stock price target to $50 from $60 on weak Q3

Published 30/10/2025, 11:36
Stifel lowers Chipotle stock price target to $50 from $60 on weak Q3

Investing.com - Stifel has reduced its price target on Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) to $50.00 from $60.00 while maintaining a Buy rating following the company’s third-quarter results. The stock currently trades at $39.76, just above its 52-week low of $38.30, with InvestingPro data showing the company is currently undervalued based on its Fair Value assessment.

The restaurant chain reported weaker-than-expected comparable sales in the third quarter, which Stifel attributes to ongoing macroeconomic pressures affecting consumer spending. InvestingPro data reveals that 15 analysts have revised their earnings downwards for the upcoming period, reflecting these challenges despite Chipotle maintaining 8.57% revenue growth over the last twelve months.

Despite the disappointing results, Stifel believes this quarter could represent a "clearing event" for the stock, depending on where 2026 earnings per share estimates settle. The firm lowered its 2026 EPS estimate to $1.20, compared to $1.15 expected for 2025. With Chipotle trading at a P/E ratio of 35.53 and a PEG ratio of 3.38, the stock appears expensive relative to its near-term growth prospects according to InvestingPro metrics.

Stifel noted that management has established a more achievable target for the fourth quarter and has indicated willingness to reinvest margin into the business to drive sales growth in 2026.

The research firm expects several initiatives to improve transaction performance, including revamped menu innovation with new dips and limited-time offerings, new advertising campaigns to better communicate the brand’s value proposition, and an updated loyalty program.

In other recent news, Chipotle Mexican Grill reported its third-quarter earnings for 2025, revealing a mixed performance. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) met expectations at $0.29, but revenue fell short of forecasts, coming in at $3 billion. This financial report was followed by analyst actions impacting the company’s outlook. Mizuho lowered its price target for Chipotle to $34.00, citing an underwhelming third-quarter performance and a fourth-quarter same-store sales growth guidance that was below consensus expectations. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs also reduced its price target to $45.00, maintaining a Buy rating despite concerns over inflationary pressures affecting consumer traffic, particularly among younger and lower-income segments. These recent developments highlight the challenges Chipotle faces in navigating economic pressures while managing investor expectations.

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