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Investing.com - Macau’s October gaming revenue was significantly stronger than expected, according to Stifel analysts, who noted that despite a disappointing Golden Week, the market is showing clear signs of inflection.
October’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) represented the highest monthly total since October 2019, coming in approximately 9% below that pre-pandemic benchmark. Stifel analysts believe that without weather impacts during Golden Week, the market would have grown more than 18% and been only 5-7% below 2019 levels.
The strong performance came despite VIP volumes hovering around only 30% of 2019 levels, suggesting potential upside if high-end play continues to accelerate. Stifel noted that after a slow start, high-end players "came back in droves" in the latter part of the month.
Looking ahead, Stifel expects strong visitation in November due to the Macau Grand Prix and China’s National Games, forecasting November 2025 GGR to increase 5-9% year-over-year. For full-year 2026, the firm projects 4-8% growth, slightly ahead of the current consensus estimate of 5.3%.
Despite the positive trends, Stifel observed that Macau-centric stocks still trade at discounts to historical ranges, with investor interest "slowly starting to inflect" amid continued uncertainty around China’s macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop.
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