Truist cuts Churchill Downs target to $162, keeps buy rating

Published 20/02/2025, 23:40
Truist cuts Churchill Downs target to $162, keeps buy rating

On Thursday, Truist Securities adjusted its price target for Churchill Downs (NASDAQ:CHDN) stock, bringing it down from $165.00 to $162.00 while maintaining a Buy rating on the shares. Currently trading at $119.05, the stock sits near its 52-week low of $111.09, while InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock may be undervalued based on its proprietary Fair Value model. The revision followed the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report, which surpassed expectations by 2%. With current EBITDA at $899.9M and revenue growth of 11.07% over the last twelve months, the company shows strong operational performance. The management team discussed the multi-year Derby projects in detail on the earnings call, suggesting these initiatives have the potential to double the Kentucky Derby’s EBITDA.

The analyst from Truist, Barry Jonas, noted that despite investor concerns around the Rose’s future, influenced by factors such as election-related uncertainties and weather conditions, the management remains confident in the property’s prospects. However, due to these concerns and a more cautious approach towards the ramp-up of the Rose and conservative gaming assumptions, Truist has lowered its forward EBITDA estimate by 2%.

Jonas commented on the adjustments stating, "We lower our forward EBITDA estimate by -2% and our PT to $162 (fr. $165) factoring bad weather and conservative ramp to the Rose and more conservative Gaming assumptions." Despite the lowered price target and EBITDA forecast, Truist’s stance on Churchill Downs remains optimistic. Jonas emphasized the ongoing investments in the iconic Kentucky Derby asset, which he believes should command the highest multiple across Truist’s coverage.

The management’s confidence and continued investment are seen as key drivers for Churchill Downs’ positive outlook. The Kentucky Derby, a flagship event for Churchill Downs, is expected to significantly benefit from the multi-year projects that are currently underway.

In summary, although the price target has been slightly reduced to reflect near-term challenges, Truist Securities reaffirms its Buy rating on Churchill Downs shares, highlighting the company’s strategic investments and strong management as foundations for future growth. The company’s track record includes maintaining dividend payments for 51 consecutive years, demonstrating long-term stability. For deeper insights into Churchill Downs’ financial health and growth potential, including 8 additional exclusive ProTips, check out the comprehensive research available on InvestingPro.

In other recent news, Churchill Downs Incorporated announced its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, reporting record net revenue and adjusted EBITDA. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) matched analyst expectations at $0.92, while revenue slightly exceeded forecasts, reaching $624.2 million against a projected $620.3 million. These results highlight the company’s stable financial health and operational efficiency. Churchill Downs has been focusing on expanding its Kentucky Derby initiatives and HRM venues in Virginia and Kentucky, which have contributed to its strong market position. The company has also outlined plans for significant expansions at Churchill Downs Racetrack, including the Sky Terrace renovation and the infield general admission project, expected to be completed by 2028. Additionally, the company anticipates continued growth in 2025, with projected maintenance capital spending set between $100 million and $110 million. Churchill Downs’ strategic investments and expansions are expected to drive long-term shareholder value, supported by strong consumer demand for experiential events.

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