UBS cuts Iovance stock rating, slashes price target to $2

Published 16/05/2025, 09:04
UBS cuts Iovance stock rating, slashes price target to $2

On Friday, UBS analysts downgraded shares of Iovance Biotherapeutics (NASDAQ:IOVA) from "Buy" to "Neutral," significantly lowering the price target from $17.00 to $2.00. The decision comes after the company’s first-quarter 2025 sales of Amtagvi fell short of expectations and the full-year 2025 guidance was reduced, reflecting a slower than anticipated ramp-up of the drug. Currently trading at $1.76, the stock has fallen over 83% in the past year and is near its 52-week low of $1.65. InvestingPro analysis indicates the stock is currently undervalued, with 12 additional real-time insights available to subscribers.

The UBS team pointed to several factors contributing to the slower ramp, including issues with the implementation process and the activation of smaller authorized treatment centers (ATCs). These centers are reportedly struggling with inadequate hospital infrastructure, limited resources and staffing, as well as potential reimbursement challenges. Additionally, a higher patient dropout rate in the first quarter suggests that patient selection may not be optimal, and further education for physicians could be necessary. According to InvestingPro data, while the company holds more cash than debt and maintains strong liquidity with a current ratio of 4.18, it’s rapidly burning through cash reserves, which could impact its ability to support the drug’s rollout.

The analysts also noted that the difficulties in administering Amtagvi treatment may reduce the number of ATCs capable of providing the therapy or the frequency of its administration. This could ultimately affect the drug’s peak market penetration. Due to these challenges and the lack of clear short-term visibility on the drug’s uptake, UBS has opted to take a more cautious stance on Iovance Biotherapeutics’ stock.

The revised price target of $2.00 is based on a 0.6x enterprise value to estimated 2030 earnings multiple, a decrease from the previous 2.5x multiple. UBS justifies the lower multiple with a discounted cash flow analysis and the expected deleverage from reduced sales forecasts for Amtagvi.

In other recent news, Iovance Biotherapeutics reported a first-quarter 2025 earnings loss per share of $0.36, falling short of the analyst consensus estimate of a $0.24 loss per share. The company’s revenue for the quarter was $49.3 million, significantly below the expected $83.27 million. Following these results, Iovance revised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $250 million to $300 million, citing reduced capacity during scheduled maintenance at its Iovance Cell Therapy Center. Despite these challenges, the company reported a solid cash position of approximately $366 million as of March 31, 2025, which is expected to fund operations into the second half of 2026.

In light of the earnings miss and revised guidance, several analyst firms adjusted their outlook on Iovance. Truist Securities downgraded the company’s stock from Buy to Hold, citing market challenges and performance inconsistencies. Meanwhile, Baird also downgraded Iovance from Outperform to Neutral and slashed its price target to $3.00 from $20.00, reflecting concerns over the company’s ability to achieve breakeven. Conversely, H.C. Wainwright maintained a Buy rating but reduced its price target to $20.00 from $32.00, showing ongoing optimism about Iovance’s long-term prospects despite the recent setbacks.

Iovance’s management remains optimistic about future growth, highlighting the treatment of over 275 Amtagvi patients and anticipation of regulatory approvals in the UK, EU, and Canada. Additionally, the company is developing next-generation TIL cell therapies to enhance its competitive position. Investors will be closely monitoring Iovance’s ability to navigate these challenges and capitalize on its growth strategy.

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