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On Monday, UBS analyst John Roberts issued a downgrade for LyondellBasell Industries (NYSE:LYB), changing the rating from Neutral to Sell. Accompanying this downgrade, the price target was also significantly reduced from $76.00 to $51.00. The stock, currently trading at $57.98, has fallen significantly from its 52-week high of $107.02, with a market capitalization of $18.75 billion. According to InvestingPro analysis, LYB appears undervalued at current levels. The adjustment reflects concerns over increasing costs and an abundance of global supply which are seen as factors that could continue to weigh on the company’s earnings.
LyondellBasell, a manufacturer of plastics, chemicals, and refining products, has been facing demand challenges for nearly two years. According to UBS, the markets for polyethylene and polypropylene, two key products for LyondellBasell, are among the most oversupplied in their coverage. Despite these challenges, InvestingPro data shows the company maintains a "GOOD" overall financial health score of 2.52, with particularly strong marks in profitability metrics. Analysts at UBS forecast that it may take years for these markets to reach a state of balance.
The firm’s outlook is further dampened by economic factors such as the expectation of natural gas prices remaining above $4/mmbtu and Brent crude futures hovering in the mid-$60s per barrel. These conditions are likely to erode the cost advantage previously enjoyed by U.S. producers, which has narrowed from approximately $48 per barrel equivalent over 2018-2019 to around $40 currently.
UBS predicts that LyondellBasell’s earnings will hit a low point in 2025 and has consequently lowered its EBITDA estimates for the company for 2025 and 2026 by 12% and 11%, respectively. The revised estimates are now 14-17% below the consensus, which could lead to further pressure on the stock as market expectations adjust.
The analysis by UBS suggests that with earnings expected to remain below $5 billion through 2028, compared to the $6-7 billion before the COVID-19 pandemic, the company’s valuation multiple might shrink to reflect this "new normal." The report also indicates that risks of additional capacity expansions outside the United States could prolong the period of pressure on LyondellBasell through the end of the decade.
In other recent news, LyondellBasell Industries reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial performance, highlighting strategic growth and sustainability efforts. The company achieved an earnings per share of $6.40 for the year, with EBITDA reaching $4.3 billion. The strategic focus on circular and low-carbon solutions resulted in a 65% increase in volumes. Despite the challenges faced in the petrochemical industry, LyondellBasell maintained robust shareholder returns, distributing $1.9 billion through dividends and buybacks. BMO Capital Markets recently adjusted its outlook on the company by lowering the price target to $82 from $87, following weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings primarily due to performance issues in the Olefins & Polyolefins segments. Meanwhile, JPMorgan downgraded LyondellBasell’s stock rating from Overweight to Neutral, reducing the price target to $60, citing concerns about the cyclical nature of the petrochemical industry. These developments come as the company continues to navigate an uncertain economic landscape, with management expecting similar performance in the upcoming quarter, balancing seasonal improvements with higher raw material costs.
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