UBS lowers Rivian stock price target to $12 on margin concerns

Published 06/08/2025, 17:06
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Investing.com - UBS lowered its price target on Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ:RIVN) to $12.00 from $13.00 on Wednesday, while maintaining a Neutral rating on the electric vehicle maker. According to InvestingPro data, Rivian maintains strong liquidity with a current ratio of 3.44, though the stock has declined nearly 18% over the past year.

The price target reduction follows Rivian’s second-quarter 2025 results, which showed disappointing margins and an increased EBITDA loss forecast for 2025. The company’s gross profit margin stands at -4.31%, with EBITDA losses reaching $2.73 billion in the last twelve months. UBS cited the removal of credit revenue and profit for the second half of the year as key factors in the revised outlook.

Rivian has maintained its delivery guidance and expects stronger performance in the third quarter followed by softer results in the fourth quarter, which coincides with the expiration of the U.S. electric vehicle consumer credit. UBS noted this timing may delay clarity on underlying demand for Rivian’s R1 vehicles until early 2026.

The investment bank expressed concerns about Rivian’s mid-term story, despite management’s continued goal of reaching EBITDA breakeven in 2027. The loss of regulatory credits, which provided 100% margin, and potential impacts from the expiration of consumer credits could affect R2 demand or pricing.

While Rivian management is seeking ways to mitigate these challenges, UBS indicated that market participants will likely wait for proof of execution before adjusting their outlook on the company. InvestingPro analysis reveals 6 analysts have revised their earnings downward for the upcoming period, with analyst price targets ranging from $7.05 to $21.00. Get comprehensive insights and 8 additional exclusive ProTips for Rivian through InvestingPro’s detailed research reports.

In other recent news, Rivian Automotive reported second-quarter revenue of $1.3 billion, aligning with consensus estimates and slightly exceeding some analyst expectations. Despite this, the company posted a gross profit of negative $206 million, falling short of Benchmark’s forecast due to lower production volume and under-absorption of fixed costs. Benchmark has maintained its Buy rating on Rivian, with a price target of $18. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated a Neutral rating with a $15 price target, noting positive partnerships but expressing concerns over delivery guidance. Meanwhile, Bernstein reiterated an Underperform rating, citing increased tariff costs and fading emission credit revenues, with a price target of $7.05. Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) lowered its price target to $12, maintaining a Neutral rating, following Rivian’s report of a 23% year-over-year decline in vehicle deliveries. Wedbush also lowered its price target to $16, while keeping an Outperform rating, highlighting Rivian’s higher average selling prices and growth in its software and services segment.

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