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On Tuesday, UBS reiterated its Buy rating and $60.00 price target for CG Oncology (NASDAQ:CGON), following recent clinical trial updates presented at the American Urological Association (AUA) 2025 conference. The stock, currently trading at $28.48, has shown remarkable momentum with a 36.57% gain over the past week. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for CGON range from $23 to $82, with a strong buy consensus rating. The firm’s analysis highlighted comparative data on CG Oncology’s product, Cretostimogene, and a competing therapy, TAR-200.
The latest results from TAR-200 indicated a 12-month complete response (CR) rate of 45.9%, which is a decline from the previously reported 57% and below the >50% expectation set by investors. In contrast, Cretostimogene’s 12-month CR rate remained stable at 46.4%, slightly up from 46% in prior reports. Notably, Cretostimogene also demonstrated a longer median duration of response (mDOR) at 27.9 months compared to TAR-200’s 25.8 months.
UBS analysts emphasized the significance of these findings, suggesting that Cretostimogene’s immunotherapy mechanism of action (MOA) might offer more durable treatment compared to TAR-200’s chemotherapy-based MOA. The expectation is that TAR-200’s 24-month CR will continue to decline over time.
During the AUA conference, UBS consulted with six key opinion leaders (KOLs), who collectively expressed a preference for Cretostimogene due to its high efficacy, better safety and tolerability profile, and simpler administration. This marks a shift in expert opinion from the previous year when TAR-200 was considered to have superior durability. Now, over 80% of patients are expected to opt for Cretostimogene as their first choice, while TAR-200 is anticipated to be used at some point by 50-60% of patients, followed by other treatments like Anktiva and Adstiladrin.
The KOLs’ consensus underpins UBS’s hypothesis and supports the firm’s positive outlook on CG Oncology’s stock. The maintained Buy rating and price target reflect the firm’s confidence in Cretostimogene’s market potential and its role in the treatment landscape for the relevant patient population. With an overall Financial Health score of "FAIR" from InvestingPro and the next earnings report due on May 8, 2025, investors should closely monitor the company’s progress in commercializing its promising therapies.
In other recent news, CG Oncology has reported significant progress in its Phase 3 study of cretostimogene, a bladder cancer treatment, with 75.5% of patients achieving a complete response at some point during the trial. The study showed a median duration of response exceeding 28 months, with 46% of patients maintaining a complete response at 12 months. Notably, no Grade 3 or higher treatment-related adverse events were reported, highlighting the treatment’s strong safety profile. Cantor Fitzgerald has reiterated its Overweight rating for CG Oncology, maintaining a price target of $75, citing the potential of cretostimogene to reach over $2 billion in peak worldwide sales. H.C. Wainwright also reaffirmed its Buy rating and $75 price target, emphasizing the promising trial outcomes and the treatment’s best-in-class durability profile. The BOND-003 trial results, presented at the European Association of Urology Congress, have been directly compared with J&J’s TAR-200. Analysts have noted the advantages of cretostimogene’s intravesical administration over TAR-200’s device-based delivery, which may limit its ease of use. CG Oncology continues to explore cretostimogene’s potential in other clinical trials, including a Phase 3 monotherapy trial and a combination trial with nivolumab.
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