UBS upgrades Antero Resources stock to Buy on valuation and gas price outlook

Published 20/08/2025, 10:06
UBS upgrades Antero Resources stock to Buy on valuation and gas price outlook

Investing.com - UBS upgraded Antero Resources (NYSE:AR), currently trading at $29.87 with a market capitalization of $9.2 billion, from Neutral to Buy and set a price target of $43.00, citing multiple factors including the stock’s recent decline. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears undervalued based on its Fair Value metrics.

The investment bank noted that Antero shares have fallen approximately 30% recently, creating a better entry point for investors. This decline is confirmed by InvestingPro data, which shows the stock’s RSI indicates oversold conditions. UBS highlighted the company’s attractive 16.9% 2026 EV/FCF yield compared to peers at 10.2%, suggesting the market has not fully recognized Antero’s financial and operational improvements over the past year, including its robust EBITDA of $1.34 billion over the last twelve months.

UBS believes the current stock price implies Henry Hub natural gas prices of $3.00-3.10/mmbtu, below both UBS’s $3.75 outlook for 2026-27 and the $3.85 strip price. The firm also pointed to Antero’s superior upside leverage to rising natural gas prices due to its hedge position, maintenance level operations, and capital efficient asset base.

The research note forecasts Antero’s net debt to EBITDA ratio falling to 0.5x by year-end 2025, which would support an increase in free cash flow allocation to shareholders to 50% in 2026, with potential to reach 75%.

UBS identified the improving shareholder return profile as a key catalyst that could help narrow the valuation gap, projecting a potential return of capital yield of 8.7% compared to peers at 6.4%.

In other recent news, Antero Resources Corporation reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, surpassing Wall Street expectations. The company achieved an earnings per share of $0.50, exceeding the forecasted $0.44, which represents a 13.64% positive surprise. Revenue also outperformed projections, totaling $1.3 billion compared to the anticipated $1.25 billion. Additionally, Michael N. Kennedy has been appointed as the Chief Executive Officer and President of both Antero Resources and Antero Midstream (NYSE:AM) Corporation. Kennedy has been with Antero since 2013 and previously held the position of Chief Financial Officer since 2021. He succeeds Paul M. Rady, who will transition to Chairman Emeritus. Kennedy’s appointment is effective immediately. These developments reflect recent changes and achievements within Antero Resources and Antero Midstream.

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