William Blair starts Ocular Therapeutix stock with Outperform

Published 08/04/2025, 13:48
William Blair starts Ocular Therapeutix stock with Outperform

On Tuesday, William Blair initiated coverage of Ocular Therapeutix (NASDAQ:OCUL), assigning the stock an Outperform rating and setting a fair value at $18 per share. The firm joins a broader analyst consensus with price targets ranging from $14 to $22, reflecting significant upside potential from current levels. The firm's analyst cited the potential of Ocular's lead clinical asset, Axpaxli, which is currently in Phase III studies for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD). According to InvestingPro, the company maintains strong liquidity with a current ratio of 10.66, providing ample resources for its clinical development programs. The product is a long-acting axitinib hydrogel implant that could also be expanded for use in other retinal vascular diseases.

Ocular Therapeutix is recognized as a commercial biotech company. Its key focus, Axpaxli, is being developed as a new class of treatment that utilizes long-acting tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs). These inhibitors are anticipated to significantly alter the current treatment practices for patients with nAMD.

The optimism surrounding Axpaxli stems from its potential to demonstrate superior efficacy and durability in comparison to existing treatments. The analyst from William Blair expressed a positive outlook on the drug's prospects, suggesting that it could emerge as a best-in-class option within its therapeutic category. The company has demonstrated steady progress, with revenue growth of 9.03% over the last twelve months, though InvestingPro analysis indicates several additional key metrics and insights available to subscribers.

The Outperform rating reflects William Blair's confidence in Ocular Therapeutix's stock performance, driven by the anticipated success of Axpaxli in ongoing clinical trials. As the company progresses through the final phase of studies, the biotech firm is poised to potentially capture a significant share of the nAMD treatment market.

Investors and industry observers will be closely monitoring the results of the Phase III studies, which will be pivotal in determining Axpaxli's future and, by extension, the trajectory of Ocular Therapeutix's stock value. The company, currently valued at $1 billion, has seen its shares decline 26% year-to-date, potentially presenting an opportunity based on InvestingPro's comprehensive Fair Value analysis and detailed research reports available to subscribers.

In other recent news, Ocular Therapeutix reported a 15% year-over-year increase in total revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching $17.1 million, surpassing some expectations, although falling short of others. The company posted a net loss of $48.4 million, or $0.29 per share, which was more significant than anticipated. For the entire year, total revenue rose by 9% to $63.7 million. Analysts have reacted to these earnings with varied outlooks; H.C. Wainwright maintained a Buy rating with a $15 price target, while Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James reiterated a Strong Buy rating with a $19 price target. JMP Securities adjusted its target to $19 from $22, maintaining a Market Outperform rating, and BofA Securities reduced its target to $17, continuing to recommend a Buy rating.

Ocular Therapeutix also announced an amendment to its Special Protocol Agreement for the Phase 3 SOL-1 trial of AXPAXLI, a treatment for wet age-related macular degeneration. This amendment introduces additional re-dosing at Weeks 52 and 76, with the primary endpoint report now expected in the first quarter of 2026. The company aims to expedite its new drug application process and support a more flexible dosing label. The SOL-1 trial has completed enrollment and randomization, with top-line data now anticipated in early 2026. Analysts have noted that these changes might streamline the timeline for a New Drug Application filing, despite the delay in the SOL-1 readout.

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