Oil prices steady after OPEC+ pauses output hikes next year

Investing.com-- Oil prices steadied Monday after the OPEC+ hiked production once again over the weekend, but also agreed to halt its ongoing production hikes in the next quarter amid concerns over a looming supply glut. 

At 05:10 ET (10:10 GMT), Brent oil futures for January slipped 0.1% to $64.76 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.1% to $60.93 a barrel.

Brent and WTI both fell more than 2% in October, down for a third straight month, hitting a five-month low on October 20 on the supply glut fears and economic concerns about U.S. tariffs.

OPEC+ pauses output hikes in Q1

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, or the OPEC+, agreed over the weekend to hike production by a small margin in December, as had been widely flagged before the event. 

The cartel raised its December output target by 137,000 barrels per day, the same as for October and November. 

The OPEC’s output hikes this year are largely a winding back of two years of supply cuts, as the cartel sought to gain a greater market share to offset the impact of weak oil prices.

But the group– which has now raised its production quota by about 2.9 million bpd so far in 2025– said it will pause its recent production hikes in the first three months of 2026. 

The OPEC+ cited concerns over a supply glut and sluggish demand, with January-March also seen as the weakest quarter for oil demand. 

"The market is expected to be in peak surplus through the first quarter of 2026, so a pause makes sense. However, given recent U.S. sanctions on Russia, there is plenty of uncertainty as to the size of this surplus," said analysts at ING, in a note.

Ukraine attacks key Russian oil port 

Oil was also supported by concerns over supply disruptions, after Ukraine on Sunday struck one of Russia’s main Black Sea oil ports.

The attack is part of Kyiv’s strategy to hinder Russia’s war efforts by attacking its energy infrastructure. 

The attack came just after Russia struck Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, which disrupted power supply for a large part of the country. 

Russia’s largest oil firms were slapped with strict U.S. sanctions in October, raising some hopes of tighter global supplies in the coming months.

But given that Russia has dodged sanctions in the past, traders were waiting to see whether the new restrictions would have any meaningful effect. 

Recent comments from U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that U.S. efforts to broker a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire were providing limited results. But fears of supply disruptions stemming from the war are expected to offer oil some support.

Net Brent long positions increase 

The latest positioning data for ICE Brent shows that speculators bought 119,046 lots over the last reporting week to leave them with a net long of 171,567 lots as of last Tuesday.

"The move was driven by a combination of fresh longs entering the market, along with a lot of short covering," said ING. "The large shift over the week reflects the announcement of US sanctions on Russia."

Ambar Warrick contributed to this article