By Geoffrey Smith
Investing.com -- Bernie Sanders wins the New Hampshire primary, leaving former front-runner Joe Biden needing a miracle in Nevada and South Carolina to keep his nomination hopes alive. Markets are rallying again on another drop in reported new cases of the Covid-19 virus, but changes to China's counting methodology have further undermined trust in the reliability of its data. Earnings season revs up again with updates from CVS, Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), Shopify and Equinix (NASDAQ:EQIX), while Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) disappointed investors with its update late on Tuesday. And OPEC is due to update its forecasts for global oil demand after the U.S. government cuts its forecasts due to the virus. Here's what you need to know in financial markets on Wednesday, 12th February.
1. Creative counting casts doubt on virus tally
The Covid-19 coronavirus, as it’s now officially known, is mutating – not biologically, but statistically. Chinese authorities announced a second big daily drop in the rate of new infections Tuesday, but reports from outside China suggest that that may be due more to changes in China’s way of counting.
As of late last week, China is no longer counting those who test positive for the virus as infected as long as they show no symptoms of the disease. Given that Chinese studies acknowledge that patients can go for up 24 days without showing symptoms, that creates a clear risk of undercounting.
Outside China, the number of cases on a cruise ship quarantined in Yokohama, Japan, rose to over 170, while Singapore’s financial district was rocked when DBS Group, the island state’s largest bank, sent workers home after discovering a case among its workforce. The Chinese Formula 1 Grand Prix was cancelled, while a major shipbuilder announced force majeure on its conracts, saying that labor shortages would stop it delivering two large bulk carriers on time.
2. New Hampshire
Senator Bernie Sanders won the New Hampshire Democratic primary, but strong showings by Pete Buttigeig and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar means that the race for the nomination is still very much an open one.
Former vice-president Joe Biden again trailed badly in fifth place, as he had done in Iowa. His hopes of the nomination now depend heavily on his performance in Nevada and South Carolina, which will show if he can still count on his traditional support among minorities.
3. Stocks set to march higher
U.S. stock markets are set to open higher again, bolstered by the improving official Chinese data and by the awareness that central banks are unlikely to withdraw any of the liquidity provided in recent weeks to soothe markets during the Covid-19 outbreak.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that barring “persistent” and “material” impacts on the U.S. economy, the Fed’s current monetary policy stance would remain appropriate for the near future. That means at least two more months of repos and bill purchases, he added.
By 6:30 AM ET (1130 GMT), the Dow 30 futures contract was up 131 points, or 0.5%, while the S&P 500 contract was up 0.4% and the Nasdaq 100 contract was up 0.5%.
European stocks also hit new highs overnight, the benchmark Stoxx 600 rising 0.5% on the back of solid earnings from luxury giant Kering (PA:PRTP) and Dutch brewer Heineken, among others.
4. Earnings season revs up again with tech, financial reports; Lyft's update disappoints
After a relatively quiet start to the week, earnings season gets back into full swing, with updates from CVS before the open and Cisco after the close.
CME Group, Shopify, Equinix and Moody’s also are due to report.
Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) will also be in focus in early trade after the company chose not to follow Uber (NYSE:UBER) in moving up the date when it expects to be profitable. The company’s revenue growth slowed to 2.5% in the second half of last year from 6% in the first half, while its net loss widened. The outlook and the quarterly numbers together combined to push the stock down 5.5% in after-hours trading.
One of Uber’s largest investors, Softbank, also reported overnight. Its reported profit fell 99% after its Vision Fund posted a $2 billion loss, caused largely by writedowns of its investments in WeWork. Softbank stock had soared by 12% on Tuesday after a U.S. court cleared the plans of another big portfolio company, Sprint Corp., to merge with T-Mobile US (NASDAQ:TMUS).
5. OPEC to estimate virus hit to global oil demand
The U.S. government cut its forecast for global oil demand this year by 300,000 barrels a day due to the Covid-19 outbreak, a step that sets the stage for similar actions by OPEC and the International Energy Agency as they release their monthly reports over the next couple of days.
OPEC is due to update its latest estimates for global supply and demand in its monthly report today, while the IEA’s report is due to follow on Thursday.
The short-term drop in demand was in evidence on Tuesday, when the American Petroleum Institute reported a 6 million barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories last week. That’s more than twice the increase predicted for the official government inventory count that is due at 10:30 AM ET (GMT)
Crude prices continue to recover gradually after a brutal sell-off, however. By 6:25 AM ET, U.S. crude futures were up 1.6% at $50.73 a barrel, while Brent futures were up 2.2% at $55.19.