* IEA sees threat to oil supply decreasing as Mideast cools
* Global oil supply, stocks can withstand political tension
* OPEC crude production set to again outstrip demand
(Adds graphics, detail)
By Noah Browning
LONDON, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Surging oil production from
non-OPEC countries led by the United States along with abundant
global stocks will help the market weather political shocks such
as the U.S.-Iran stand-off, the International Energy Agency
(IEA) said on Thursday.
"For now the risk of a major threat to oil supplies appears
to have receded," the Paris-based IEA said in a monthly report.
"Today's market, where non-OPEC production is rising
strongly and OECD stocks are 9 million barrels above the
five-year average, provides a solid base from which to react to
any escalation in geopolitical tension," the IEA said.
The IEA said it expected production to outstrip demand for
crude from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) even if members comply fully with a pact with Russia and
other non-OPEC allies to curb output.
"Even if they adhere strictly to the cuts, there is still
likely to be a strong build in inventories during the first half
of 2020," the IEA said.
It estimated OPEC crude production at 29.3 million barrels
per day (bpd) in January, 700,000 bpd above the projected demand
for it.
Still, the IEA said global oil supply tumbled by 780,000 bpd
in December month on month as Saudi Arabia reined in production
and due to a seasonal fall in biofuel production, with U.S.
output growth rising but more slowly than in previous years.
Demand growth in China and India was up sharply but was flat
in the United States for 2019, and the IEA kept its global
demand growth forecast steady at 1.2 million bpd.
The estimate is up 200,000 bpd from its 2019 prediction,
"supported partly by prices remaining relatively subdued, higher
global GDP growth than last year and by progress in settling
trade disputes."
Despite its confidence in global supply and stocks, the IEA
highlighted concern over Iraq, where the United States killed a
top Iranian general this month and ratcheted up regional
tensions, calling it "a potentially vulnerable supplier".
"Heightened security concerns might make it more difficult
for Iraq to build production capacity," the IEA said.
Demand/supply Balance https://tmsnrt.rs/30oCe5u
Call on OPEC crude https://tmsnrt.rs/2RoUIyD
OPEC and non-OPEC oil supply https://tmsnrt.rs/2RlguDJ
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