* IEA says mobility picking up, Chinese demand rose
* U.S. to contribute biggest single output reduction by
end-2020
* IEA deems Gulf Arab cuts insufficient to balance market
(Adds IEA chief comments, graphics, details)
By Noah Browning
LONDON, May 14 (Reuters) - Oil demand is still set for a
record fall in 2020, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said
on Thursday, but it trimmed its forecast for the drop citing
easing lockdown measures.
Demand is expected to fall by 8.6 million barrels per day
(bpd), the IEA said in its monthly report, raising its estimate
by 690,000 bpd compared to last month.
Around 2.8 billion people will be living under confinement
measures aimed at containing the novel coronavirus at the end of
May, down from 4 billion in April, the Paris-based IEA said.
In revising its forecast, the energy watchdog cited
stronger-than-expected mobility in some European countries and
the United States as well as higher Chinese demand as it
recovers from the virus outbreak.
"Economic activity is beginning a gradual-but-fragile
recovery. However, major uncertainties remain. The biggest is
whether governments can ease the lockdown measures without
sparking a resurgence of COVID-19 outbreaks," it said.
Led by the United States and Canada, producers outside the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies
like Russia, the so-called OPEC+ grouping, saw a fall in April
output by 3 million bpd compared to the start of the year.
The IEA predicted that by the end of 2020, the United States
would be the biggest single contributor to supply reductions,
down 2.8 million bpd year on year.
"It is on the supply side where market forces have
demonstrated their power and shown that the pain of lower prices
affects all producers," the IEA said.
But IEA director Fatih Birol said on a call with reporters
that recently announced output cuts by major Gulf Arab producers
would likely not be enough to balance global markets.
"I am happy to see Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Kuwait -
on top of their existing commitments - are now going to make
further cuts. I do welcome them. Whether or not this is enough,
I do not think so," Birol said on the call after the IEA
released its monthly report.
"We are seeing the early signs of a start of recovery, but
it is far too early to say we are soon going to reach the
rebalancing of the markets," he added, renewing a call to OPEC+
countries to consider further cuts.
The shortage of oil storage capacity worldwide and
especially in the United States has addled markets and weighed
on crude prices in recent weeks, but the IEA predicted a
recovery was likely approaching.
It predicted 5.5 million bpd of a "massive" implied increase
in crude oil stocks of 9.7 million bpd in the first half of the
year would be drawn down in the second half, assuming no
resurgence of the virus and full commitment to production cuts.
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Oil Supply Response https://tmsnrt.rs/2Z1jZV3
World population under lockdown https://tmsnrt.rs/3crvVn0
Oil demand change by product https://tmsnrt.rs/2Z2YuU8
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