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On Wednesday, Airtel Africa's stock rating was downgraded by JPMorgan from Overweight to Neutral, accompanied by a price target adjustment to 121 pence from 139 pence. The revision reflects lower earnings forecasts, particularly due to the performance of Airtel Nigeria.
The firm revised its models for Airtel Africa, citing a lower than anticipated EBITDA margin for Airtel Nigeria in the first quarter of 2025. While Airtel's EBITDA margins have not suffered as much as those of MTN Nigeria, the results still fell short of expectations, prompting the adjustment.
The downgrade comes after an analysis of Airtel Africa's financial outlook, leading to a roughly 13% reduction in the target price for the company's shares. JPMorgan's updated evaluation of Airtel Africa's earnings potential has necessitated this adjustment in stock rating and price target.
JPMorgan's statement on the matter highlights the basis for their decision: "Airtel Africa downgrade to Neutral on lower earnings forecasts. We update our models to reflect our lower Airtel Nigeria EBITDA margin forecasts - although Airtel has not been as severely impacted on EBITDA margins as MTN Nigeria, the 1Q25 margin was below expectations."
The new target price for Airtel Africa now stands at 121 pence, marking a significant change from the previous target of 139 pence. This updated price target is a direct result of the revised earnings forecast and serves as the basis for the stock's downgrade to Neutral by JPMorgan.
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