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On Friday, Deutsche Bank maintained its Buy rating on Boeing (NYSE:BA) shares with an unchanged price target of $225.00, despite lowering its second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the aerospace company. The revisions come as the firm incorporates additional charges related to a recent plea deal with the Justice Department.
The second-quarter EPS estimate for Boeing has been adjusted to a loss of $1.50 from the previous estimate of a loss of $1.17. This change includes a $244 million charge associated with the plea agreement.
Furthermore, the Boeing Defense, Space & Security (BDS) segment's EBIT forecast has been updated to reflect a loss of $193 million, down from the prior forecast of a $130 million loss. This adjustment accounts for a 2.5% underlying margin and charges on fixed-price development programs totaling $350 million, which include costs related to the VC-25B and Commercial Crew programs.
Additionally, Deutsche Bank has refined its projection for Boeing's second-quarter tax rate, aligning it with the first-quarter rate at 6%, a significant decrease from the previously expected 16%. The forecast for free cash flow (FCF) in the second quarter has also been revised downward, from a burn of $3.7 billion to $4.1 billion, due to updated working capital assumptions.
For the full year, the free cash flow estimate has been revised to reflect an increased cash burn of $1.5 billion, up from the previous estimate of $1.2 billion. This revision is mainly attributed to third-quarter cash payments related to the Department of Justice fine.
Despite these adjustments, Deutsche Bank's target price for Boeing remains at $225. The firm also highlighted potential downside risks for Boeing, which include additional charges for the BDS, potential delivery deferrals, certification delays for the MAX-7/10 and 777X aircraft, further quality issues, upcoming negotiations with the International Association of Machinists (IAM) union, and slower-than-anticipated growth in global air traffic.
In other recent news, Airbus has launched a new cost-cutting initiative named "LEAD!" to address rising unit costs and productivity issues within its planemaking division. This follows recent decreases in the company's aircraft production targets.
Similarly, Boeing is facing its challenges with potential delays in the delivery of its 737 Max aircraft scheduled for 2025 and 2026, extending the wait by an additional three to six months.
In a turn of events, Boeing is close to securing a significant multi-billion dollar deal with Korean Air for the sale of its 777X jets, potentially marking a return of the South Korean flagship carrier to Boeing. This development could boost Boeing's 777X program significantly.
On a different note, Boeing's CEO, Dave Calhoun, has apologized to the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) for a breach in investigation protocols related to the 737 MAX aircraft. The company is actively reviewing guidelines with its employees to prevent future breaches.
Lastly, the Pentagon is set to review Boeing's planned guilty plea and agreement with the Justice Department, which could potentially affect the aerospace giant's ability to secure government contracts.
InvestingPro Insights
According to InvestingPro data, Boeing's market capitalization stands at $111.86 billion, with a negative P/E ratio of -51.16, reflecting the challenges the company has faced. Despite an 8.37% increase in revenue over the last twelve months as of Q1 2024, the company's gross profit margin remains low at 11.48%, which aligns with the concerns raised by Deutsche Bank regarding Boeing's financial health.
Two critical InvestingPro Tips highlight that analysts have revised their earnings downwards for the upcoming period, and Boeing is not expected to be profitable this year. These insights could be particularly valuable for investors considering the potential downside risks mentioned by Deutsche Bank, such as additional BDS charges and slower global air traffic growth. Moreover, Boeing's stock price movements have been quite volatile, which could be a significant factor for traders seeking short-term opportunities.
For those looking to delve deeper into Boeing's financials and future prospects, there are additional InvestingPro Tips available, which can be accessed with an exclusive offer. Use the coupon code PRONEWS24 to get up to 10% off a yearly Pro and a yearly or biyearly Pro+ subscription, and explore the full range of tips that can further inform investment decisions.
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