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Introduction & Market Context
Century Aluminum Company (NASDAQ:CENX) presented its second quarter 2025 earnings results on August 7, revealing a mixed performance with a shift to a net loss but projecting a significant improvement for the third quarter. The company is navigating an aluminum market characterized by historic low inventory levels and benefiting from increased Section 232 tariffs, which rose to 50% in June 2025.
The aluminum producer reported a net loss of $4.6 million in Q2, compared to a net income of $29.7 million in the previous quarter, while adjusted EBITDA decreased slightly to $74 million from $78 million in Q1. Despite these challenges, Century’s management expressed optimism about Q3, projecting adjusted EBITDA to reach $115-125 million, representing a potential 55% sequential increase.
Quarterly Performance Highlights
Century Aluminum shipped 175,741 tonnes of aluminum in Q2 2025, up 4.2% from 168,672 tonnes in Q1. However, net sales decreased slightly to $628 million from $634 million in the previous quarter. The company reported a net loss of $4.6 million (or -$0.05 per share) compared to a net income of $29.7 million ($0.29 per share) in Q1. On an adjusted basis, earnings per share were $0.30, down from $0.36 in the first quarter.
As shown in the following financial results summary, the company maintained relatively stable liquidity while managing its debt position:
The waterfall chart below illustrates the key factors affecting the company’s Q2 performance. Positive impacts from LME/Delivery Premiums (+$11 million) and Volume/Mix (+$5 million) were offset by negative factors including Alumina/Raw Materials (-$8 million), FX (-$4 million), and Opex/Other (-$10 million):
The company’s cash position decreased slightly from $45 million to $41 million during the quarter, as shown in this cash flow bridge:
Industry Environment
Century Aluminum operates in a market characterized by tight supply-demand dynamics. Global aluminum inventory stands at historic lows of 47 days, while the global market is projected to have a slight deficit in FY25 with demand of 74.1 million tonnes slightly exceeding supply of 74.0 million tonnes.
The following chart illustrates key pricing trends in the aluminum industry, including the impact of the Section 232 tariff increase to 50% effective June 4, which has significantly boosted regional premiums:
The supply-demand balance remains particularly tight in the US and EU markets, as shown in this industry environment overview:
Strategic Initiatives
Century Aluminum highlighted several strategic initiatives during its presentation. The company plans to restart over 50,000 tonnes of idled production at its Mt. Holly facility, aiming to achieve full capacity utilization by Q2 2026. This restart aligns with the company’s strategy to capitalize on favorable market conditions and the increased Section 232 tariffs.
The company also completed a refinancing of its 7.50% Senior Secured Notes with new 6.875% notes, extending maturity to 2032 and reducing interest expense. This move strengthens Century’s financial position as it pursues growth opportunities.
Perhaps most significantly, Century is developing a new aluminum smelter project with support from the U.S. Department of Energy, which has awarded up to $500 million in grant funding. This project addresses the significant supply gap in the US primary aluminum market, which is short approximately 4.2 million tonnes per year despite being the second-largest consumer globally.
The new smelter project represents a major strategic investment as illustrated below:
Forward-Looking Statements
Century Aluminum’s outlook for Q3 2025 is notably optimistic, with projected adjusted EBITDA of $115-125 million, representing a potential 55% increase from Q2. This projection is based on several factors including the full-quarter benefit of the increased Section 232 tariffs and favorable pricing dynamics.
The detailed Q3 outlook is presented in the following chart:
The company’s hedging strategy provides some protection against market volatility, with varying levels of coverage across key commodities:
Looking beyond the immediate quarter, Century’s capital allocation framework prioritizes maintaining liquidity through market cycles, with targets of $250-300 million in liquidity and $300 million in net debt. The company currently exceeds its liquidity target with $363 million but remains above its net debt target with $446 million.
Market Reaction
Century Aluminum’s stock (NASDAQ:CENX) closed at $22.64 on August 7, 2025, up 5.3% or $1.14 from the previous close. This positive market reaction suggests investors may be focusing on the strong Q3 outlook rather than the mixed Q2 results.
This represents a significant recovery from the company’s performance following Q1 results, when the stock dropped 5.18% after missing earnings expectations. The current price of $22.64 is closer to the stock’s 52-week high of $25.39 than its low of $11.63, indicating improved investor sentiment about Century’s prospects.
The market appears to be responding positively to Century’s strategic positioning in a tight aluminum market, particularly with the benefit of increased tariffs and the company’s expansion plans that address the significant US supply shortage.
Full presentation:
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