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On Wednesday, Citi reaffirmed its Neutral rating on Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) with a steady price target of $172.00. The firm updated its model to account for recent changes in commodity prices and provided insights ahead of the company's second-quarter earnings report, which is scheduled for August 6. The analysis by Citi projects an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.89 for Marathon Petroleum, aligning with the consensus estimates that have been published recently.
Marathon Petroleum is anticipated to report a quarter with higher throughput, following the company's guidance and with no significant unexpected downtime. However, the benefit of this increased throughput is likely to be counterbalanced by lower crack spreads, a key metric in the refinery sector that can impact profitability.
Looking into the third quarter, Citi noted that Marathon Petroleum's Galveston Bay refinery, which has a capacity of 631,000 barrels per day, has experienced several unit shutdowns due to power outages caused by Hurricane Beryl since July 8. The impact of these shutdowns on third-quarter production is expected to be addressed by the company during the upcoming earnings call.
In other recent news, Marathon Petroleum has been facing adjustments in its shares target by multiple analyst firms due to concerns over refining margins and dynamic market conditions. Mizuho Securities reduced Marathon Petroleum's price target from $201.00 to $198.00, expecting shortfalls in earnings, free cash flow, and earnings per share for the second quarter of 2024. This prediction is mainly due to anticipated lower refining margins. Simultaneously, Piper Sandler cut the company's shares target from $190.00 to $168.00, reflecting a valuation method that projects forward to the 2024/2025 fiscal years.
In preparation for the summer driving season, U.S. crude oil refiners, including Marathon Petroleum, have increased their imports to a nearly two-year high, led by Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO), and Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX). The surge in imports is in response to the anticipated demand for the upcoming summer driving season, with imports from Canada, Mexico, Guyana, and Colombia notably increasing.
Lastly, Marathon Petroleum announced a leadership transition, with Maryann T. Mannen, currently serving as the company's President, set to take over as Chief Executive Officer and join the Board of Directors on August 1, 2024.
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