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Introduction & Market Context
CTO Realty Growth (NYSE:CTO) presented its first quarter 2025 results on May 2, 2025, highlighting continued portfolio expansion and strong leasing activity despite a challenging retail environment. The company’s focus on high-growth markets in the Southeast and Southwest United States has driven its enterprise value to $1.3 billion, representing a 26% compound annual growth rate since 2020.
Trading at $18.10 per share as of the presentation date, CTO offers a 7.9% dividend yield, significantly higher than its peer average of 4.6%. The company’s strategic focus on multi-tenant retail properties with grocery, lifestyle, or community-oriented components has positioned it well in the current market environment.
Quarterly Performance Highlights
CTO reported $80 million in investment activity during Q1 2025, expanding its portfolio to 5.2 million square feet across 24 properties. The company achieved same-property NOI growth of 2.4% quarter-over-quarter, demonstrating the strength of its underlying assets.
Leasing activity was particularly strong, with approximately 109,400 square feet of comparable leasing space signed at an impressive 37% leasing spread. This robust spread indicates strong demand for CTO’s retail spaces and potential for continued rent growth. The company’s leased occupancy reached 93.8%, with a 280 basis point spread between leased and occupied space representing future income potential.
As shown in the following summary of Q1 2025 highlights, CTO has maintained strong growth in both enterprise value and portfolio size:
The company’s financial position remains solid with a net debt to pro forma adjusted EBITDA ratio of 6.6x. CTO’s balance sheet shows $615 million in equity market capitalization, $595 million in net debt outstanding, and $118 million in Series A preferred equity, resulting in a total enterprise value of $1.3 billion.
Portfolio Growth and Strategy
CTO’s portfolio has undergone significant transformation since 2019, shifting from a diverse mix of property types to a focused retail portfolio concentrated in high-growth markets. Currently, 83% of annual base rent (ABR) comes from properties in Georgia, Texas, Florida, and North Carolina, with 95% of ABR from ULI’s top 30 markets.
The company’s investment strategy focuses on multi-tenant assets in the Southeast and Southwest U.S., specifically targeting properties with below-market land and rent basis. This approach has resulted in an implied property value per square foot of $225, significantly below replacement cost in many markets.
The following slide illustrates CTO’s impressive portfolio transformation since 2019:
Recent acquisitions have maintained an average basis of $165 per square foot, including Ashley Park in Atlanta, GA (559,000 sf), Carolina Pavilion in Charlotte, NC (686,000 sf), and Marketplace at Seminole in Orlando, FL (315,000 sf). These acquisitions align with the company’s strategy of acquiring well-located retail centers with value-add potential.
CTO’s portfolio demographics are particularly strong, with an average 5-mile population of 191,000 and average household income of $141,000. This demographic strength supports tenant demand and provides resilience against economic downturns.
Leasing Activity and Tenant Mix
During Q1 2025, CTO executed 18 leases totaling 112,585 square feet, representing approximately 2% of the portfolio. New leases were signed at an impressive 82% cash spread over previous rents, while renewals achieved a 7% spread, resulting in a blended spread of 37%.
The company’s tenant mix is well-diversified across retail categories, with casual dining (13% of ABR), off-price retail (8%), and entertainment (8%) representing the largest segments. This diversification helps mitigate risk from any single retail category or tenant.
As shown in the following slide on retail leasing execution, CTO continues to demonstrate strong demand for its retail spaces:
The company is actively addressing recent store closings, with executed leases or letters of intent for the majority of vacant spaces. Previous in-place base rent of $2.8 million is expected to increase to $4.0-4.5 million upon re-leasing, representing a 40-60% leasing spread. This mark-to-market opportunity demonstrates the embedded growth potential within CTO’s portfolio.
Additionally, CTO’s signed-not-open (SNO) pipeline represents $4.0 million in future cash base rent, equivalent to 4.0% of in-place cash rent. This pipeline provides visibility into future income growth, with 38.8% of this rent expected to commence in 2025 and 99.7% by 2026.
Financial Position and Outlook
CTO maintains a solid financial position with $138 million in liquidity, including $130 million in undrawn revolving credit facility commitments. The company’s net debt represents 45% of total enterprise value, a conservative level for the retail REIT sector.
For 2025, CTO has provided guidance for Core FFO per diluted share of $1.80-$1.86 and AFFO per diluted share of $1.93-$1.98. Same-property NOI growth is projected at approximately 1.0%, reflecting the company’s stable operating performance.
The following guidance slide outlines CTO’s expectations for 2025:
Compared to its retail REIT peers, CTO trades at an attractive valuation of 10.5x Core FFO, below the peer average of 12.8x, despite its strong growth profile and high-quality portfolio. This valuation discount, combined with the company’s 7.9% dividend yield, presents a potentially attractive opportunity for income-focused investors.
CTO’s structured investments portfolio, totaling $107 million with an average yield of 10.4%, provides an additional source of income and growth. These investments include first mortgage loans, preferred equity investments, and land development opportunities, often with rights to acquire the underlying properties.
The company’s investment in Alpine Income Property Trust (NYSE:PINE) generates approximately $7.1 million in annual income through management fees and dividends. CTO owns a 15.1% stake in PINE valued at $39.5 million as of March 31, 2025.
Strategic Initiatives
Looking ahead, CTO is focused on several strategic initiatives to drive growth and shareholder value. The company continues to target acquisitions in high-growth markets, with a focus on properties with below-market rents and value-add potential.
Active asset management remains a key component of CTO’s strategy, with the company targeting lease-up of existing vacancy and repositioning opportunities. The signed-not-opened pipeline of $4.0 million represents 4.0% of current in-place cash rent, providing visibility into future income growth.
The company’s investment strategy is clearly outlined in the following slide:
CTO’s focus on markets with strong demographics and growth potential positions it well for continued success. The company’s portfolio is concentrated in markets with above-average population growth and household income, providing a solid foundation for retail tenant demand.
In summary, CTO Realty Growth’s Q1 2025 presentation demonstrates the company’s continued execution of its strategic plan, with strong leasing activity, portfolio expansion, and solid financial performance. The company’s focus on high-growth markets in the Southeast and Southwest, combined with its active asset management approach, positions it well for continued growth in the coming years.
Full presentation:
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