Two 59%+ winners, four above 25% in Aug – How this AI model keeps picking winners
Introduction & Market Context
Exact Sciences Corporation (NASDAQ:EXAS) presented its second-quarter 2025 earnings on August 6, showcasing strong revenue growth and improved profitability that exceeded previous guidance. The cancer screening and diagnostics company continues to build on its momentum from Q1, when it reported 11% year-over-year revenue growth.
The company’s stock closed at $46.91 on the day of the earnings release, down 0.95% in regular trading. However, the strong results and raised guidance suggest potential for positive market reaction.
Quarterly Performance Highlights
Exact Sciences reported total revenue of $811 million for Q2 2025, representing a 16% increase compared to the same period last year. This performance was driven by strong growth across the company’s core business segments.
As shown in the following chart of quarterly revenue growth:
The company’s screening segment, which includes its flagship Cologuard colorectal cancer screening test, generated $628 million in revenue, up 18% from $532 million in Q2 2024. Meanwhile, the Precision Oncology core revenue grew 9% to $179 million.
Profitability metrics showed significant improvement as well. Adjusted EBITDA reached $138 million (17% margin) in Q2 2025, representing a 26% increase from $110 million (16% margin) in the same period last year. Free cash flow turned positive, improving from -$49 million in 2024 YTD to $46 million in 2025 YTD.
The following chart illustrates this profitability improvement:
"Our purpose is to help eradicate cancer by preventing it, detecting it earlier, and guiding personalized treatment," stated the company in its presentation, highlighting the mission driving its financial performance.
Strategic Initiatives
Exact Sciences outlined several strategic initiatives aimed at maintaining growth momentum while improving operational efficiency. The company announced a multi-year productivity program targeting $150 million in annual run-rate cost savings by 2026, focusing on reducing external spend, restructuring support functions, and accelerating the use of AI and automation.
The company’s flagship Cologuard test continues to gain market traction, having now been used for screening over 20 million times since its launch. Growth drivers include new patients, rescreens (recurring testing), and the enhanced Cologuard Plus™ product.
As illustrated in the cumulative Cologuard test usage:
Exact Sciences is also expanding its product portfolio beyond Cologuard. The company highlighted its blood-based colorectal cancer screening test, which shows promising performance metrics with 81% overall sensitivity and 90% specificity. This test could provide an alternative screening option for the estimated 50 million unscreened Americans.
The following slide details the performance of this blood-based screening test:
Perhaps most notably, Exact Sciences introduced Cancerguard™, a multi-cancer screening test that can detect multiple types of cancer through a single blood draw. The company claims this test, when used alongside standard care, could reduce cancer mortality by 17%. Published data shows 67% sensitivity for the six deadliest cancers, with a planned laboratory developed test (LDT) launch in September.
The Cancerguard™ strategy is outlined here:
Additionally, the company’s Oncodetect™ test, which predicts and detects cancer relapses earlier, has secured Medicare coverage for colorectal cancer patients, representing another growth avenue.
Forward-Looking Statements
Based on its strong Q2 performance, Exact Sciences raised its full-year 2025 guidance. The company now expects total revenue between $3.130-3.170 billion, up $55 million at the midpoint from previous guidance. This includes Screening revenue of $2.440-2.470 billion (up $48 million at midpoint) and Precision Oncology revenue of $690-700 million (up $8 million at midpoint).
The updated guidance is presented in the following table:
Adjusted EBITDA guidance was also raised to $455-475 million, an increase of $25 million at the midpoint, reflecting the company’s improving profitability profile.
This updated guidance builds on the momentum reported in Q1 2025, when the company initially raised its full-year revenue guidance to $3.070-3.120 billion.
Exact Sciences appears well-positioned to continue its growth trajectory, with a comprehensive overview of its scale and impact shown here:
With 7,000+ global team members, relationships with over 200,000 ordering providers each quarter, and 9 R&D centers and labs, Exact Sciences has built a substantial infrastructure to support its mission of cancer prevention and early detection. As the company continues to expand its product portfolio and improve operational efficiency, investors will be watching closely to see if this translates into sustained profitability and market share gains in the competitive cancer diagnostics space.
Full presentation:
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