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WASHINGTON - Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA), the $57.22 billion mortgage finance giant whose stock has surged over 200% year-to-date according to InvestingPro data, has lowered its forecast for existing single-family home sales in 2025 to 4.14 million units, down from the previous projection of 4.24 million units, according to the company’s June Economic and Housing Outlook released today.
The downward revision primarily stems from the mortgage finance company’s updated interest rate expectations. Mortgage rates are now predicted to end 2025 at 6.5% and 2026 at 6.1%, higher than previously forecast. InvestingPro analysis indicates volatile stock movements and suggests earnings downgrades for the upcoming period, with additional insights available in the comprehensive Pro Research Report.
The Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group at Fannie Mae also adjusted its economic growth projections, forecasting real gross domestic product to grow at 1.4% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis. With annual revenue of $30.44 billion and a FAIR Financial Health Score from InvestingPro, the company maintains a strong market position despite challenging conditions.
"Higher expectations for mortgage rates contributed to our revised home sales forecast," said Mark Palim, Chief Economist at Fannie Mae, according to the press release statement.
The forecast adjustment comes as the housing market continues to face affordability challenges, with elevated mortgage rates affecting buyer demand across many U.S. markets.
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group regularly analyzes current data and historical trends to provide forecasts on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets. The company notes that its projections are based on various assumptions that are subject to change.
The full June 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook contains additional details on economic developments and comprehensive housing market forecasts.
In other recent news, Fannie Mae has announced the launch of its AI-powered Crime Detection Unit, developed in collaboration with Palantir Technologies. This initiative aims to enhance the detection and prevention of mortgage fraud, potentially saving the U.S. housing market millions in fraud losses. The new unit will utilize artificial intelligence to monitor and analyze extensive datasets, identifying irregular patterns to effectively curb fraudulent activities. Fannie Mae’s Chairman, William J. Pulte, highlighted the initiative’s importance in increasing the safety and soundness of the housing system. Priscilla Almodovar, Fannie Mae’s president and CEO, noted that the integration of AI technology would allow the company to uncover previously undetectable fraudulent patterns, reinforcing the integrity of the mortgage market. Fannie Mae, with over $4.3 trillion in assets, is a major player in the U.S. housing market, owning or guaranteeing a significant portion of single-family and multifamily mortgages. The establishment of this unit marks a significant step in combating mortgage fraud. Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir Technologies, expressed that this partnership would revolutionize the fight against mortgage fraud in the U.S.
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