KeyCorp shares target upped by Jefferies, driven by deal-related NII

Published 19/08/2024, 11:06
KeyCorp shares target upped by Jefferies, driven by deal-related NII

On Monday, Jefferies updated its outlook on KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) shares, increasing the price target to $19.00 from the previous $18.00 while sustaining a Buy rating. The financial firm revised its model to include the impact of KeyCorp's recent Scotia deal, planned securities book restructuring, and adjustments for interest rate changes.

The analyst from Jefferies highlighted that the deal-related net interest income (NII) is expected to contribute approximately $400 million through 2025. This figure includes $300 million from securities repositioning and an additional $100 million from cash additions.

The analysis suggests that KeyCorp will benefit from enhanced capital flexibility, forecasting a common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio, including accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI), to be between 9.1% and 9.4% post-restructuring. This is slightly below Jefferies' own first quarter 2025 CET1 projection of 9.7%.

The firm anticipates that KeyCorp's earnings per share (EPS) will see potential growth, particularly if the cash proceeds from the deal are effectively reinvested into loans or fee-generating activities. The EPS estimates have been set at $1.08 for 2024 and $1.65 for 2025, reflecting the anticipated accretion from the deal.

Overall, the update from Jefferies suggests a positive outlook for KeyCorp's financial performance following the Scotia transaction and subsequent restructuring efforts. The revised price target of $19.00 reflects the potential for earnings growth and capital flexibility derived from these strategic moves.

InvestingPro Insights

KeyCorp's strategic decisions and the positive outlook from Jefferies find further support in the real-time data and insights provided by InvestingPro. With a market capitalization of $15.21 billion and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio standing at 21.07, KeyCorp demonstrates a solid position in the financial sector. The company's commitment to shareholder returns is evident, having raised its dividend for 13 consecutive years, a testament to its financial resilience and management's confidence in future performance.

InvestingPro data also shows that KeyCorp has achieved a high return over the last year, with a 1-year price total return of 61.5%. This impressive performance is reflected in the stock's price hovering close to its 52-week high, at 95.9% of the peak value. Moreover, analysts covered by InvestingPro predict that the company will be profitable this year, aligning with the positive earnings per share (EPS) growth projections mentioned by Jefferies.

For those interested in deeper analysis, additional InvestingPro Tips are available, offering insights into KeyCorp's financial health and future prospects. To explore further, visit InvestingPro's KeyCorp page for more exclusive tips and metrics.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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