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Introduction & Market Context
Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) reported its first quarter 2025 results on April 29, showing resilience in a challenging environment marked by significant cocoa price volatility. The global snacking giant delivered solid top-line growth despite headwinds from volume declines and cost pressures.
The company faced a mixed consumer confidence landscape across its markets, with North America experiencing softness while Europe and emerging markets showed greater resilience. This regional variation significantly impacted performance across Mondelez’s product categories.
As shown in the following slide detailing consumer confidence trends across regions:
Quarterly Performance Highlights
Mondelez achieved 3.1% organic net revenue growth in Q1 2025, driven primarily by pricing actions (+6.6%), which helped offset volume/mix declines (-3.5%). The company generated $0.8 billion in free cash flow and returned $2.1 billion to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends.
The key financial metrics for the quarter reveal the impact of cocoa costs on profitability, with adjusted EPS declining 18.3% in constant currency:
Volume and mix were impacted by several one-time factors, including US trade destocking (-0.6 percentage points), product downsizing (-0.9 percentage points), and seasonal phasing (-0.7 percentage points). These temporary headwinds were partially offset by European customer disruption recovery (+0.7 percentage points), resulting in the overall 3.5% volume/mix decline.
Segment and Regional Analysis
The chocolate segment emerged as the standout performer, delivering 10.1% organic net revenue growth despite a 5.7% volume/mix decline. This growth was primarily driven by cocoa-led pricing actions. In contrast, the biscuits and baked snacks segment showed more modest growth of 0.3%, impacted by softer US consumption and retailer destocking.
The following slide illustrates the performance breakdown by category:
Regional performance varied significantly, with Europe leading at 8.9% revenue growth despite a 25.6% operating income decline due to cocoa costs. North America faced challenges with a 3.6% revenue decline and 18.0% operating income drop. Latin America and AMEA (Asia, Middle East, and Africa) delivered more moderate growth at 3.9% and 1.8%, respectively.
Profit Challenges and Cocoa Impact
The significant rise in cocoa prices was the primary factor affecting profitability in Q1 2025. Adjusted gross profit declined by 12.0% in constant currency, while adjusted operating income fell by 18.0%. These declines were partially offset by pricing actions and cost efficiency measures.
The following slide breaks down the components affecting EPS performance:
Encouragingly, cocoa prices have begun trending downward in recent months, which could provide relief in future quarters. The futures market indicates expectations of further normalization, though prices remain elevated compared to historical norms.
Strategic Initiatives
Despite the challenging environment, Mondelez continued to advance its growth strategy across four key pillars: reinvesting in brands, expanding distribution, partnering with customers, and scaling sustainable snacking.
The company highlighted several strategic achievements in Q1, including the launch of innovations like Cadbury Biscoff and Post Malone Oreo, the addition of 100,000 stores in emerging markets, and a top-tier ranking in the Advantage Global Survey for the first time.
The following slide outlines these strategic initiatives:
The chocolate strategy appears to be on track, with robust revenue growth management execution across markets and elasticity in line with expectations. The company reported year-to-date share gains in key chocolate markets including India, Brazil, France, and South Africa.
Forward Outlook
Mondelez reaffirmed its 2025 outlook, projecting approximately 5% organic net revenue growth and a 10% decline in adjusted EPS growth at constant currency. The company expects to generate over $3 billion in free cash flow and plans to continue its share repurchase program with over $3 billion allocated.
Looking ahead to 2026, Mondelez expects a return to EPS growth, though cocoa prices are anticipated to remain elevated compared to historical norms. The company plans incremental reinvestment, primarily in advertising and consumer promotion, to support long-term growth.
Management emphasized its focus on delivering the 2025 outlook despite the challenged operating environment, with early positive results from the chocolate strategy and cost savings plans on track. The company will continue to monitor cocoa prices closely as it begins hedging for 2026.
In summary, Mondelez demonstrated resilience in Q1 2025 through strong pricing execution and strategic focus, despite significant headwinds from cocoa costs and regional market challenges. With cocoa prices beginning to ease and strategic initiatives gaining traction, the company appears positioned for improved performance in the coming quarters.
Full presentation:
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