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On Monday, Scotiabank revised its stock price target for Superior Plus Corp (SPB:CN) (OTC: SUUIF), reducing it to C$9.00 from the previous C$12.00, while keeping a Sector Perform rating on the stock. The adjustment comes as the company faces several challenges, including increased competition and climate change headwinds.
The analyst at Scotiabank pointed to a slowdown in Certarus, Superior Plus's main vertical, due to intensified competition in West Texas, which has led to margin compression. This development is expected to persist, prompting a revision of the previously anticipated earnings growth. Moreover, the propane business is dealing with the impacts of climate change, although the shift towards fee-based charges is seen as a positive move.
Another concern raised was the company's slow progress in reducing its debt, which has been limiting its financial flexibility. Despite these challenges, the analyst noted that Superior Plus has been moving in the right direction with its balance sheet deleveraging.
The market's reaction to Superior Plus's nearly 9.5% yield suggests skepticism about the sustainability of its dividend, according to Scotiabank. The firm suggested that reducing the dividend to C$0.12 per share from C$0.72 could free up approximately C$110 million annually, based on around 250 million shares outstanding. This would support accelerated debt reduction or share buybacks, while still allowing the company to qualify for institutional dividend funds.
The proposed dividend cut, however, might not sit well with the company's predominantly retail investor base, potentially leading to a shift in the shareholder composition. Nevertheless, the analyst believes any negative reaction could be limited, especially since the stock price is currently at a 12-year low, excluding the period affected by the COVID shock.
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