Strong bidding activity leads to upgrade for Science Applications stock by JPMorgan

Published 02/10/2024, 12:06
Strong bidding activity leads to upgrade for Science Applications stock by JPMorgan

On Wednesday, JPMorgan made a bullish move on Science Applications (NASDAQ:SAIC) International Corp (NASDAQ:SAIC), upgrading the stock from Neutral to Overweight. The firm also raised its price target on SAIC shares to $170.00, up from the previous target of $150.00. This decision follows Science Applications' efforts to shift towards higher-value work, a strategy highlighted during their April Investor Day.

Science Applications is on a path to accelerate profitable growth, as evidenced by their recent financial performance. The company has expanded its qualified pipeline from approximately $115 billion in FY24 to about $130 billion currently. Additionally, SAIC has increased its submitted bids from $17 billion last year to $22 billion this year, outpacing its own targets with nearly $15 billion in submitted bids in the first half alone.

The firm has set ambitious goals, aiming for a new business win rate over 30% and retention of 80-90% of re-competes. This strategy is expected to result in a trailing 12-month book-to-bill ratio of 1.2x by the first half of FY26. While SAIC faces headwinds from lost re-competes this fiscal year, which are impacting organic growth by approximately five percentage points, the company anticipates these challenges will subside moving into FY26.

For FY26, Science Applications is projecting 3% growth with a slight margin expansion of 10 basis points. These projections are deemed reasonable by JPMorgan, with the potential for further upside due to the company's progress on new program pursuits. Despite the inherent risks associated with winning new work and meeting higher technical requirements, the analyst notes the potential for improved margin rates.

The valuation of SAIC, according to JPMorgan, suggests market skepticism. However, the firm emphasizes SAIC's strong free cash flow generation, which is over $500 million annually and growing—equivalent to 7% of the current market capitalization. Management's commitment to returning this cash to shareholders further supports the positive outlook. JPMorgan's December 2025 price target of $170 is based on 16 times their FY27 (CY26) estimate for adjusted EPS.

"In other recent news, Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC) has seen a series of financial and strategic developments. Jefferies has raised SAIC's stock target from $140.00 to $148.00, maintaining a hold rating. This adjustment follows a series of positive developments for the company, including a strong progression in bids throughout the year, amounting to around $14.5 billion. The company anticipates organic growth of 2-3% in the second half of the year, bolstered by operations and maintenance expenditure catch-up and the ramp-up of the DTAMM project.

SAIC also secured a significant $229 million contract from the U.S. Department of Defense, enhancing the IT capabilities of NORAD and USNORTHCOM. The company's recent second fiscal quarter results indicated a 2% increase in revenue and a slight 2% decrease in EBITDA, surpassing expectations and leading to a revised fiscal year 2025 forecast predicting 3% revenue growth and 4% EBITDA growth.

These developments are part of SAIC's strategic transition towards targeted growth areas and improved bidding processes. The company aims to hit a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2x by the first half of fiscal year 2026 and a 5% organic revenue growth by the end of the same fiscal year. Despite acknowledging risks related to contract protests and the impact of elections on their book-to-bill targets, SAIC executives expressed confidence in their strategy to drive sustainable growth."

InvestingPro Insights

Recent data from InvestingPro adds weight to JPMorgan's bullish stance on Science Applications International Corp (NASDAQ:SAIC). The company's market cap stands at $6.97 billion, with a P/E ratio of 25.12, reflecting investor confidence in its earnings potential. SAIC's revenue for the last twelve months as of Q2 2025 was $7.297 billion, with a gross profit margin of 11.57%, indicating room for improvement in line with the company's strategy to shift towards higher-value work.

InvestingPro Tips highlight SAIC's financial strength and shareholder-friendly policies. The company has maintained dividend payments for 12 consecutive years, demonstrating a commitment to returning value to shareholders. This aligns with JPMorgan's note on SAIC's strong free cash flow generation and management's focus on shareholder returns. Additionally, SAIC's management has been aggressively buying back shares, which could potentially boost earnings per share and support the stock price.

The stock has shown strong performance, with a 21.26% price total return over the past three months and a 33.28% return over the past year. This momentum supports JPMorgan's upgraded outlook and increased price target. However, investors should note that the RSI suggests the stock may be in overbought territory, which could indicate a potential short-term pullback.

For readers interested in a deeper dive into SAIC's financials and prospects, InvestingPro offers 12 additional tips, providing a comprehensive analysis to inform investment decisions.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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