TC Energy Q2 2025 slides: 12% EBITDA growth drives increased full-year outlook

Introduction & Executive Summary

TC Energy Corporation (NYSE:TRP) presented its second quarter 2025 results on July 31, 2025, showcasing strong operational and financial performance across all business segments. The company reported a 12% year-over-year increase in comparable EBITDA and raised its full-year 2025 outlook, citing strong asset availability and successful project execution.

"We’re delivering on our 2025 priorities through safety and operational excellence, executing our growth projects, and ensuring financial strength," said François Poirier, President and Chief Executive Officer, during the conference call.

The company’s performance reflects growing demand for natural gas infrastructure across North America, with TC Energy strategically positioned to capitalize on projected demand increases of 45 Bcf/d by 2035.

Quarterly Performance Highlights

TC Energy reported comparable EBITDA from continuing operations of $2,625 million in Q2 2025, representing a 12% increase compared to Q2 2024. Net income attributable to common shares from continuing operations rose from $804 million to $862 million year-over-year.

The company’s natural gas pipeline segments demonstrated robust performance across all regions. Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines saw total system deliveries average 23.4 Bcf/d, up 5% versus Q2 2024, while Canadian Mainline Western receipts averaged 4.4 Bcf/d, a 7% increase year-over-year.

As shown in the following chart detailing Q2 highlights and comparable EBITDA growth:

U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines reported daily average flows of 25.7 Bcf/d, with comparable EBITDA rising 9% versus Q2 2024. Notably, deliveries to LNG facilities averaged 3.5 Bcf/d, up 6% compared to the same period last year, reflecting the growing importance of the LNG export market.

Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines continued their strong performance with daily average flows of 3.6 Bcf/d and comparable EBITDA increasing by 12%. The segment set a total daily record flow of 4.4 Bcf on April 22, 2025, demonstrating the growing demand for natural gas in Mexico.

The Power and Energy Solutions segment, which includes Bruce Power, achieved 98% availability and reported a 33% increase in comparable EBITDA compared to Q2 2024.

Strategic Initiatives and Growth Projects

TC Energy has made significant progress on its strategic priorities for 2025, with safety incident rates continuing to trend at five-year lows. The company has placed approximately 70% of its planned $8.5 billion of assets into service in 2025, tracking approximately 15% under budget.

The following slide illustrates TC Energy’s key priorities and accomplishments for 2025:

The company’s growth projects are strategically focused on meeting the surging demand for natural gas across North America. TC Energy is targeting opportunities in LNG export facilities, power generation, local distribution companies, and supply access.

As shown in this visualization of market opportunities driven by growing natural gas demand:

Several key projects were placed into service during Q2 2025, including East Lateral XPress (0.7 Bcf/d), Eastern Panhandle Expansion (0.05 Bcf/d), and the Southeast Gateway Pipeline (1.3 Bcf/d). Additional projects scheduled for completion in Q4 2025 include VR Project, WR Project, Ventura XPress, TVA Expansion, ANR Oak Grove, ANR Storage Optimization, and VNBR - GPML Loop 4.

The following slide details the company’s portfolio of growth projects for 2025:

TC Energy has sanctioned approximately $4.5 billion of high-value capital projects over the past nine months. These projects have compelling build multiples in the 5-7x range and are primarily brownfield and in-corridor expansions. All projects are 100% contracted with investment-grade counterparties, providing revenue certainty.

The company’s disciplined capital allocation approach has resulted in steadily improving returns, with weighted average unlevered after-tax internal rates of return (IRR) increasing from approximately 8.5% in 2020 to approximately 12% for projects sanctioned in 2025 year-to-date.

As illustrated in this chart showing the improving IRR trend:

Financial Outlook and Guidance

Based on strong first-half performance, TC Energy has increased its 2025 comparable EBITDA outlook to $10.8-$11.0 billion, up from the previous guidance of $10.7-$10.9 billion. This represents approximately 9% growth from 2024 levels.

The following chart shows the updated 2025 comparable EBITDA outlook:

The company maintains its 2025 net capital expenditure guidance of $5.5-$6.0 billion and continues to make progress on deleveraging efforts toward its long-term target of 4.75x debt-to-EBITDA. The current debt-to-EBITDA ratio stands at 4.8x.

TC Energy’s earnings growth supports its 25-year history of dividend growth, positioning the company as a reliable income investment in the energy infrastructure sector.

Sustainability Commitments

TC Energy highlighted progress on its sustainability initiatives, reporting a 12% reduction in absolute methane emissions between 2019 and 2024, while simultaneously increasing throughput by 15% and natural gas comparable EBITDA by 40%.

The company has introduced a methane intensity reduction target of 40-55% by 2035 from 2019 levels and achieved a five-year low in its High Energy Serious Injury and Fatality rate, demonstrating its commitment to environmental stewardship and operational safety.

Forward-Looking Statements

Looking ahead, TC Energy is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for natural gas infrastructure across North America. The company’s strategic focus on maximizing asset value through operational excellence, executing high-return growth projects, and maintaining financial strength provides a solid foundation for continued growth.

"We’re tracking to place approximately $8.5 billion of assets into service in 2025, with about 70% already completed," said Sean O’Donnell, Executive Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer. "Our strong operational performance and successful project execution have enabled us to increase our full-year comparable EBITDA outlook."

TC Energy’s 2025 strategic priorities, as outlined in the following slide, provide a roadmap for continued value creation:

With a robust pipeline of growth projects, improving returns on capital, and strong operational performance across all business segments, TC Energy appears well-positioned to deliver on its financial and operational targets for 2025 and beyond.

Full presentation:

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