Gold prices fall as geopolitical tensions ease; U.S. CPI looms
Investing.com -- Investment management firm ARK has released its 2025 Big Ideas report, which includes its predictions for Bitcoin. The firm anticipates that Bitcoin is on track to meet its 2030 price targets, with a base case of $700,000, a bull case of $1.5 million, and a bear case of $300,000.
ARK has highlighted the success of the Spot Bitcoin ETF Complex, calling it the most successful ETF launch in history. The spot bitcoin ETFs saw over $4 billion in inflows on their first day of trading, setting a new record. This figure surpasses the $1.2 billion that flowed into the gold ETF in its first month in November 2004. The inflows into the spot bitcoin ETFs have been significantly larger than the first month inflows for any of the approximately 6,000 ETFs launched over the past 30 years.
The report also noted that after its fourth halving, Bitcoin’s inflation rate fell below that of gold’s long-term supply growth. The supply of Bitcoin "halved" for the fourth time, dropping from approximately 1.8% at an annual rate to around 0.9%. This halving, integral to Bitcoin’s design, underscores its predictable monetary policy and its role as a scarce asset.
Despite a sharp drop in miner revenue following the halving, Bitcoin’s hash rate reached a new high. This suggests that miners remain confident in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, despite the halving reducing their revenue by 50%.
The launch of the Runes protocol led to a record high in Bitcoin’s daily transaction count. Runes allows for the creation of fungible tokens directly on the Bitcoin blockchain.
The report also highlighted that Bitcoin was able to absorb major selling pressure in 2024. In January of that year, the German government seized 50,000 bitcoin linked to an online piracy group and sold it six months later. The market successfully absorbed the supply, following which the price of bitcoin rallied from $53,000 to $68,000.
The number of public companies holding Bitcoin has increased, with 74 companies now holding the cryptocurrency on their balance sheets. The value of Bitcoin held by these companies has quintupled over the past year, increasing from $11 billion in 2023 to $55 billion.
In 2024, Bitcoin’s aggregate cost basis reached a new high. Its realized capitalization, or cost basis, grew by 86%, with its average acquisition cost reaching a record high of $40,980 per bitcoin, or $811.7 billion in total.
Finally, ARK’s report noted that Bitcoin’s transaction velocity dropped to a 14-year low in 2024, with the supply held for three years or more reaching an all-time high. These trends underscore Bitcoin’s role as a store of value.
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