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Investing.com -- Nordex Group has revised its 2025 EBITDA margin guidance upward following strong preliminary third-quarter results, lifting shares of major stakeholder Acciona by 1.5%.
Kepler described the update as "very significant" and expects Nordex shares to rise 15%-20% based on potential 2026 revisions. The news is also positive for Acciona, which holds a 47% stake in Nordex and fully consolidates the company in its financial statements.
The wind turbine manufacturer now expects a full-year 2025 EBITDA margin between 7.5% and 8.5%, up from its previous forecast of 5.0% to 7.0%. The improved outlook comes after a review of preliminary Q3 results and reflects strong operational execution across both project and service segments, supported by stable macroeconomic conditions.
Preliminary Q3 EBITDA reached €136 million, representing an 89% increase compared to €72 million in Q4 2024. The EBITDA margin nearly doubled to 8.0% from 4.3% in the same quarter last year.
William Mackie, Nordex analyst and Head of Capital Goods at Kepler Cheuvreux, expects consensus full-year adjusted EBITDA to increase by approximately 22% to around €600 million from €494 million. The improvement is primarily attributed to the Projects business, where effective project execution enabled a higher release of contingencies than initially budgeted.
The updated guidance implies a fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin of 11%, which exceeds the company’s mid-term objective of 8% and the 2026 consensus expectation of 7.6%.
Kepler Cheuvreux noted that Q4 2025 trends put Nordex on track to achieve approximately €750 million in adjusted EBITDA in 2026, representing a 9%+ adjusted EBITDA margin, which would be 20% above consensus and drive a 25%+ increase in adjusted EBITA.
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