Boliden shares rise as strong EBIT offsets weak cash flow, cautious guidance

Published 23/04/2025, 10:08
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Shares of Boliden AB (ST:BOL) rose Wednesday following the release of its first-quarter earnings, despite a mixed set of results that included a beat on operating profit and a miss on free cash flow. 

The Stockholm-listed miner posted operating profit excluding process inventory revaluation of 2.6 billion kronor, more than double the year-ago figure of 1.2 billion kronor. 

The figure came in 11% above estimates from RBC Capital Markets and 5% above company-compiled consensus.

The company reported net profit of 2.2 billion kronor, or 7.99 kronor per share, up from 4.16 kronor a year earlier. 

That result exceeded both RBC’s estimate of 5.04 kronor per share and the consensus forecast of 6.36 kronor.

Free cash flow was a weak spot, falling to negative 1.87 billion kronor. That missed RBC’s projection of negative 850 million kronor and the consensus forecast of negative 911 million kronor, due primarily to a larger-than-expected build-up in working capital. Net debt ended the quarter at 8.7 billion kronor, 10% higher than RBC expected.

Despite the cash flow miss, the stock rose as traders reacted to stronger earnings and what some viewed as overdone weakness in the stock earlier this year. Boliden shares have fallen around 20% year to date. 

RBC noted that while the near-term operating outlook remains cautious, especially at the Aitik mine and with integration underway at new assets, the risk-reward profile now appears more balanced.

Boliden completed the acquisitions of Somincor and Zinkgruvan on April 16. The company issued guidance for the remainder of 2025 that fell short of expectations. 

Zinc and copper production estimates for Somincor were 15% and 11% below RBC’s forecasts, respectively, while Zinkgruvan’s zinc forecast missed by 5%. Cash costs for both assets also came in higher than expected.

The smelting division outperformed, with EBIT of 1.03 billion kronor, topping RBC’s estimate by 13% and consensus by 16%. 

The upside was driven by lower-than-expected costs for external services and consumables.

Intercompany eliminations also played a role, totaling 235 million kronor, well ahead of RBC’s estimate of negative 100 million.

Capital expenditure for the full year was revised to 15.5 billion kronor, up from earlier guidance due to the inclusion of the new mines. 

The company said ramp-up at Odda’s zinc smelter remains on track for the second half of the year.

While Boliden reaffirmed full-year production and grade guidance, it warned that zinc grades at the Garpenberg mine will be lower in the second quarter. 

Management also noted that volatility in metal prices and foreign exchange rates had increased following the end of the quarter.

RBC maintained a “sector perform” rating on the stock and a price target of 310 kronor, citing integration risks and commodity headwinds, but also pointing to improved valuation after recent declines.

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