Carlsberg narrows full-year guidance, shares slide on H1 miss, gloomy H2 outlook

Investing.com -- Carlsberg (CSE:CARLb) fell short of half-year profit and volume expectations on Thursday and cautioned that it does not expect the consumer environment to improve for the remainder of 2025, pushing its shares down roughly 6% in Copenhagen trading.

The Danish brewer lifted the lower end of its full-year profit guidance but reported slower-than-anticipated first-half operating profit growth of 2.3% and a 1.7% drop in volumes.

CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen said on a media call that the company had delivered a strong performance “in a difficult year,” and expected slightly better volume growth in the second half.

However, he added that "there is no indication as we move into the second half that that’s going to change,” referring to subdued consumer spending due to price increases and uncertainty.

Carlsberg now forecasts full-year (FY25) operating profit growth of 3% to 5%, up from 1% to 5% previously. This compares to a consensus estimate of 4%. 

Operating profit for the first half came in at 7.23 billion Danish crowns ($1.13 billion), below the 7.35 billion expected by analysts.

Carlsberg posted first-half organic sales growth of -0.3%, missing consensus expectations of +0.3%, with organic volumes down 1.7% versus the forecast decline of 1.3%.

Volumes were weaker than expected in Asia, down 2.8% with sales off 1.9%, against the consensus cited by Jefferies of -1.0% and +1.0%, respectively.

In Western Europe, volumes fell 1.7% while sales rose 0.8%, beating forecasts of -2.1% and -1.1%.

Central & Eastern Europe/India saw flat volumes and sales growth of 3.1%, ahead of expectations for -0.3% and +2.0%.

"Carlsberg now expects FY25 org EBIT growth of +3-5%, reflecting a solid H1 performance including strong cost control, and good visibility into the important summer months," Morgan Stanley analysts led by Sarah Simon said in a note.

"In all, a mixed print, but in the context of a poor reporting season, an improvement in guidance should be enough, even if Asia was notably below expectations," she said.

Jefferies analysts were expecting a positive stock reaction, noting that while Asia was slightly softer, Western Europe outperformed, making for a solid set of results. They forecasted the shares to see modest gains.

They noted that narrowing the guidance range to 3–5% reflects consistent delivery and points to a "better exit rate in the second half."