HelloFresh edges higher on Q3 earnings beat, in-line sales

Published 30/10/2025, 10:06
© Reuters

Investing.com -- HelloFresh reported third-quarter results on Thursday, with sales broadly in line with forecasts while earnings came in slightly ahead of expectations, helped by cost-cutting measures. The company reiterated its full-year guidance.

Shares in HelloFresh rose more than 2%.

Revenue reached €1.58 billion, about 1% below the company-compiled consensus of €1.60 billion, while adjusted EBITDA came in at €40.3 million, 2% above consensus.

The adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 2.5% from 2.2% a year ago.

Group sales declined 13.5% year-on-year on a reported basis and 9.3% at constant exchange rates.

Both divisions were weak, with core meal kits—representing over 70% of group revenue—down 12% at constant FX, and the ready-to-eat (RTE) business down 5.4%.

Stifel analyst Clément Genelot said the performance reflected “USD headwind and both sub-businesses struggling on a c.FX basis,” adding that execution missteps weighed on customer experience in ready-to-eat while competition from CookUnity intensified.

Cost reductions remain a bright spot. Over 70% of the €300 million-plus targeted savings by 2026 have already been achieved, lifting meal-kit margins to 10%.

However, the ready-to-eat segment slipped back into losses.

Genelot said commercial indicators in August and September “bode well for the ready-to-eat recovery after two tough quarters,” while meal kits “are still down mid-single digits in September with no inflection point in sight.”

HelloFresh reaffirmed its 2025 guidance for a 6–8% decline in constant-currency sales and adjusted EBITDA between €415 million and €465 million, broadly in line with consensus at €432 million.

Genelot described the quarter as “slightly disappointing on the top line while topping expectations on the bottom line.”

“We continue to find it hard to buy into the HelloFresh equity story with its core business (meal kit, >70% of sales) still declining and no real inflection in sight,” he wrote.

Separately, Jefferies analysts said “the small improvement in constant FX growth is welcome,” however, “the previously signalled operational issues in ready-to-eat (RTE) has left the YTD performance comfortably behind the reiterated guidance.”

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