Euro-zone industrial production rises amid tariff concerns

Published 15/04/2025, 10:38
Euro-zone industrial production rises amid tariff concerns

Tuesday saw the release of data indicating that euro-zone industrial production increased for the second month in a row in February 2025.

The 1.1% month-on-month growth exceeded expectations, with consensus estimates predicting a rise of 0.1% and Capital Economics forecasting a 0.7% increase.

The gains were observed across several nations, with Spain seeing a 0.9% increase, France a 0.7% increase, and Ireland a significant 10.8% increase. However, Germany and Italy experienced declines of 0.9% each.

Despite the overall growth, the details of the report suggest that this uptick may not herald a long-term positive trend for the euro-zone industrial sector.

Analysts from Capital Economics note that the increase is partially attributed to manufacturers boosting exports in anticipation of new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Excluding the volatile data from Ireland, the February increase was a modest 0.3% month-on-month.

Additionally, the January figures were revised downward from a 0.8% increase to 0.6%, and current output levels remain below those seen before the energy crisis.

The future prospects for the euro-zone industrial sector appear to be dimming. The manufacturing new orders Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for March suggests that industrial production, excluding Ireland, is likely to stagnate.

Further complicating the situation, euro-zone exports are expected to be affected by a series of new tariffs, including a 10% tariff on EU exports to the United States, as well as 25% tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum, with the possibility of additional tariffs on pharmaceutical products.

The uncertainty surrounding future tariff policies is poised to exert additional downward pressure on production. With these factors in play, Capital Economics has raised concerns about the possibility of a contraction in euro-zone output within the current year, signaling a challenging period ahead for the region’s industrial sector.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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