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Investing.com -- UBS Group AG (NYSE:UBS) has revised its predictions for the recovery of China’s property sector, expecting a stabilization in home prices at the start of next year, a significant advancement from a previous estimation set for mid-2026.
The forecast was announced by John Lam, head of China and Hong Kong property research at the Swiss bank, during a media briefing on Wednesday.
Lam identified several factors contributing to the accelerated recovery, including a surge in second-hand home transactions in top-tier and core tier-two cities in February, a rise in premium land sales, and a steadier volume of home listings.
He noted that similar trends were observed during the recovery from a previous real estate downturn in China between 2014 and 2015.
The briefing also highlighted a return to normal inventory turnover times in tier-one cities, which, after a four-year correction period, have now gone back to an average of 14 months.
This is the same level as recorded in 2015. Lam suggested this could encourage developers to increase land reserves and construct higher-quality apartments, which could then be sold at a premium.
However, Lam also anticipates a growing polarization in the Chinese property market. He expressed a preference for regional developers operating in top-tier cities, arguing that those with premium land banks in these areas would have more flexibility in project planning compared to nationwide builders.
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