Analyst warns tariff ruling risks ’another 6+ months of trade fog’ for markets

Published 31/08/2025, 11:14

Investing.com -- Markets are weighing the implications of a U.S. Court of Appeals decision, announced on Friday afternoon, which could upend a key plank of President Donald Trump’s trade policy.

In a 7-4 ruling, the appeals court upheld a lower-court judgment striking down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), dealing a blow to the legal foundation behind many of Trump’s levies.

Prominent market analyst, Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli, noted the outcome was widely expected given the skepticism voiced during oral arguments.

“The surprise isn’t that the Court of Appeals upheld the CIT, but that 4 judges dissented,” he wrote.

For now, there is no immediate effect: the court is holding its judgment until the Supreme Court decides whether to hear an appeal, with an Oct. 14 deadline for filings.

If the Supreme Court ultimately upholds the decision, much of Trump’s tariff architecture could be dismantled.

“Most of Trump’s tariffs (including all the reciprocal ones) were issued under IEEPA and so eliminating them would undoubtably be positive assuming the matter was then dropped,” he said.

Markets dislike tariffs because they squeeze corporate margins, raise costs for consumers, and complicate Fed policy. In a tariff-free environment, the Fed could more easily cut interest rates.

But investors shouldn’t expect relief. Crisafulli warned that “this White House isn’t going to simply abandon its draconian trade agenda.”

Instead, the administration is already shifting toward Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows tariffs on national security grounds.

That pivot could mean months of new investigations and regulatory uncertainty, prolonging what Crisafulli called another “6+ months of trade fog.”

The revenue angle is also a consideration. Trump officials have talked about raising hundreds of billions annually from tariffs, with some estimates exceeding $500 billion.

But the analyst pointed out that tariffs are taxes, and “generally when you tax something, you get less of it.” For companies, that means facing unpredictable costs that change “daily based on the whims of a single, impetuous individual.”

For markets, the bigger risk is renewed instability in U.S. trade policy. Rather than clarity, the ruling could trigger an even broader and more aggressive tariff push, leaving investors and corporate America braced for prolonged uncertainty in the world of elevated stock market valuations.

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