Fed’s Powell opens door to potential rate cuts at Jackson Hole
Investing.com -- Bank of America expects the U.S. economy to sidestep a recession in 2025 and sees no Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, even as political and market noise intensifies.
In a note on Monday, BofA analysts wrote, “These developments go in line with our view that the US economy will avoid a recession and the Fed will not cut this year.”
Despite market hopes for a dovish shift, BofA says strong consumer spending and sticky goods inflation suggest continued economic resilience.
BofA highlighted that recent inflation and retail data defied expectations. “Goods inflation is picking up and consumer spending remains robust,” the analysts said, adding that the June retail sales control group rose 0.5% month-over-month, while food services grew 0.6%.
The bank also warned against rate cuts driven by political motives. “Cutting rates to help finance the government deficit is we think probably one of the worst reasons to cut rates,” it said, referring to President Trump’s criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
“This unnecessary politically driven noise raises the bar for cuts,” BofA added.
According to the bank, premature easing could “backfire and end up bear steepening the yield curve... while de-anchoring inflation expectations, weakening the dollar, and increasing credit risk.”
Looking ahead, BofA expects jobless claims to rise slightly in the week ending July 19, and for housing data to remain stable. Durable goods orders, due Friday, are forecast to fall 11% month-on-month.