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Analysts at BofA noted that recent rapid depreciation of the US dollar is closely linked to asset prices, with a simultaneous decline in US equities, Treasury bonds, and the currency itself. This trend reflects a structural increase in US risk premium, attributed to factors such as stagflation worries, a perceived peak in US exceptionalism, fiscal deficits, and policy uncertainty.
The report suggests that these dynamics could lead to continued selling of the US dollar by central banks, asset managers, and corporations, potentially causing a prolonged period of depreciation for the currency.
The analysis by BofA also offers strategic advice for corporates, recommending they hedge their US dollar exposure more robustly, perhaps favoring put spreads over outright options due to the volatility and skew in the market. This guidance comes in light of the swift and significant movements observed in the US dollar’s value.
Furthermore, the report discusses potential benefits for emerging markets (EM) if the US dollar continues to weaken, provided that the volatility index (VIX) remains conducive. EM central banks are positioned to implement deeper rate cuts in response to slower global growth if their currencies can capitalize on a weaker US dollar index (DXY). Nevertheless, the analysis from April 7, 2025, indicates that EM currencies are vulnerable to high-risk episodes, particularly when the VIX exceeds the threshold of 40.
In contrast to other central banks globally, BofA maintains a unique stance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not adjust interest rates this year due to persistent inflation concerns. The report suggests that weaker global growth prospects, driven by tariffs and sustained macroeconomic uncertainty, along with a lesser direct impact of US tariffs on inflation, might encourage monetary easing outside the United States.
BofA anticipates that the European Central Bank (ECB) could cut the deposit facility rate more than currently expected, and the Bank of England (BoE) might also reduce rates more frequently.
Finally, BofA’s outlook suggests that further divergence in interest rates compared to the US might increase the appeal of net investment hedging for US corporates, as they navigate an environment of heightened economic uncertainty and currency fluctuations.
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