S&P 500 flirts with fresh record high, but chip-led softness weighs
Investing.com - The Federal Reserve is likely to resume cutting interest rates at its December meeting, followed by two more quarter-point reductions in the first quarter of 2026, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn).
In a note, the analysts estimated that the neutral level of the Fed’s key policy rate would stand at 3.625% following these drawdowns.
Rate-setters at the Fed have recently adopted a "wait-and-see" approach to future borrowing cost cuts, with the central bank keen to see how President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda impacts the wider economy.
At the Fed’s upcoming gathering next week, the Federal Open Market Committee is widely anticipated to leave rates steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. According to CME Group’s (NASDAQ:CME) closely-monitored FedWatch Tool, the Fed is not seen cutting until its September meeting, although markets are only placing the odds of that at just over 50%.
In a note, the Deutsche Bank analysts flagged that most policymakers continue to see the case for remaining patient in adjusting policy.
One outlier is Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who has repeatedly voiced his support for a July rate cut. Waller has argued that, with uncertainty clouding the labor market and the effect of the tariffs likely to be muted, the Fed would be waiting too late if it opted to slash rates in September.
Still, economists have warned that elevated U.S. levies could drive up inflation and weigh on the broader economy. Trump has so far delayed his heightened "reciprocal" tariffs from taking effect, but a pause to these duties is set to expire on August 1.
The U.S. economy has shown signs of resilience, however, recent data has suggested that the price of some consumer goods exposed to tariffs may be rising, adding to overall inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who has been the recipient of criticism from Trump for not immediately bringing down rates, has said inflation is expected to further accelerate this summer.