IMF lowers Middle East, North Africa economic growth forecast for 2025

Published 01/05/2025, 10:46
IMF lowers Middle East, North Africa economic growth forecast for 2025

Investing.com -- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its growth forecast for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies, predicting a 2.6% increase in 2025.

This revised projection, announced on Thursday, is a significant decrease from the 4% growth forecast made in October. The IMF attributes this adjustment to uncertainties arising from global trade disputes and fluctuating oil prices.

Geopolitical tensions, weaker external demand, and oil market volatility are some of the challenges currently faced by the region. IMF’s director for the Middle East and Central Asia department, Jihad Azour, stated that these uncertainties could affect the real economy, consumption, and investment, leading to this softer growth projection.

The IMF’s report also highlighted the limited impact of US tariff measures on the region due to restricted trade integration between the two. The report also noted a slow recovery in oil production, ongoing regional conflicts, and delayed structural reforms, especially in Egypt.

The report emphasized the severe economic impact of the ongoing conflicts in the MENA region, particularly on oil importing economies. As a result, MENA non-oil importers are now projected to see real GDP growth of 3.4% in 2025, a slight decrease from the previously predicted 3.6%.

In terms of diverging outlooks, non-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) oil exporters are expected to experience a slowdown in growth by one percentage point in 2025, followed by a modest recovery in 2026. In contrast, GCC economies, which include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, are projected to strengthen, albeit at a slower pace than anticipated in October.

This is due to extended OPEC+ voluntary production cuts through April, a gradual phase-out by the end of 2026, and weaker non-oil activity.

Azour emphasized the importance of seeking new trade partnerships in light of these changes and challenges, particularly for GCC countries. The IMF has revised the GDP growth projection for GCC in 2025 to 3%, down from the October forecast of a 4.2% increase.

Efforts to diversify their economies have been increased by GCC countries, with initiatives like Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the UAE’s expansion into tourism, logistics, and manufacturing aimed at reducing reliance on hydrocarbons. Trade diversification, structural reform acceleration, and productivity improvement are all key elements in maintaining strong non-oil sector growth, according to Azour.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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