Nomura sees ECB cutting rates one more time this year after policy meeting

Published 07/03/2025, 11:34
© Reuters.

Investing.com - The European Central Bank is now tipped by analysts at Nomura to slash interest rates just once more this year, breaking from other brokerages forecasting two cuts, after the central bank indicated that there could be a pause to its easing cycle.

At its latest policy meeting on Thursday, the ECB reduced its key deposit rate by 2.5% as anticipated, marking its sixth cut since June.

Although the central bank said its policy path remained data-dependent, it added that monetary policy was becoming less restrictive as inflation in the Eurozone currency bloc cooled near to its 2% target level.

But officials flagged that the Eurozone still faces "continued challenges," leading staff to mark down their growth projections for 2025 to 0.9% from a prior estimate of 1.1%. Expectations for next year were also decreased to 1.2%, down from 1.4%.

"The downward revisions for 2025 and 2026 reflect lower exports and ongoing weakness in investment, in part originating from high trade policy uncertainty as well as broader policy uncertainty," the ECB said.

Speaking in a press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde said either a drawdown or a pause were both on the table.

In a note to clients, the Nomura analysts described the ECB’s decision as a "neutral to marginally hawkish rate cut."

Earlier this week, Nomura brought down its prediction for ECB borrowing cost reductions this year, citing the effect of an agreement by German lawmakers to loosen the country’s typically strict borrowing limits and target an uptick in defense and infrastructure spending.

The fresh expenditures have been seen as a possible source of upward price pressures, a trend which could bolster the case for the ECB to halt its rate-cutting campaign.

Still, other brokerages, including Goldman Sachs, Barclays (LON:BARC) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), estimate two rate cuts until the middle of the year.

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