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Investing.com -- The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, but the central bank’s economic projections could spring a hawkish surprise, potentially forecasting just a single cut rate for this year.
"Risks lie in a hawkish direction for 2025 in our view, with the potential for a reduction to just one cut of 25 bps," Macquarie economists said in a note Monday just a day ahead of the Fed’s two-day meeting.
The Fed is widely expected to keep rates on hold in a range of 4.25% to 4.5% at the conclusion of its March meeting due Wednesday. The decision will be accompanied by an updated of summary of economic projections.
The Fed’s December projections signaled 50 basis points of cuts in 2025 and another 50 basis points in 2026. While Macquarie’s base case is for this outlook to remain unchanged, there’s a possibility the central bank could dial back its rate cut expectations for 2025.
Market pricing currently suggests about 70 basis points of cuts by the end of 2025, more than what the Fed projected in December. This divergence sets the stage for potential disappointment if the Fed maintains or tightens its stance.
Adding to the hawkish tilt, the Fed is likely to raise its estimate of the neutral interest rate for the fifth consecutive meeting, potentially reaching 3.25%, indicating that current policy is less restrictive than previously thought.
On the inflation front, the central bank may also revise its inflation projections upward amid recent data showing core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, running at an annualized pace of about 3.2% over the past three months, well above the Fed’s 2% target.
At the press conference that follows the decision, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to emphasize the heightened uncertainty surrounding recent policy changes, including trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. "As a result the Fed does ’not need to be in a hurry’ and is ’well positioned to wait for greater clarity,’" Macquarie economists noted, quoting Powell’s recent speech.
This cautious approach aligns with Macquarie’s baseline forecast for the Fed to hold rates throughout 2025 due to firmer core inflation, with potential cuts only coming in 2026.