Trump tariffs may lead to "significant" headwinds for growth and trade - UBS

Published 03/04/2025, 11:52
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Investing.com - U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements could pose a "significant headwind to trade and growth," according to internal preliminary calculations carried out by analysts at UBS.

In a note to clients, the UBS analysts flagged that the moves push global gross domestic product growth down to 0.1%.

The impact of the levies on inflation is tipped to be "considerable" as well, the analysts said, although they noted that their predictions could be influenced by possible international retaliations to Trump’s tariffs.

China vowed to unveil its own response, saying there were no winners in a global trade war. The country’s commerce ministry called the tariffs "unilateral bullying."

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, meanwhile, pledged that a united bloc would respond to the levies, warning "if you take on one of us, you take on all of us."

On Wednesday, Trump announced his broadest slate of tariffs to date, saying he would slap a baseline 10% duty on all foreign imports into the U.S. and impose greater levies on several longstanding trading partners in a bid to respond to perceived unfair trade practices.

China, the European Union, India, and Japan are among a number of countries set to face elevated so-called "discounted reciprocal" tariffs that aim to address foreign charges and other non-trade barriers. The White House considers these nations to be "bad actors" on trade.

At an event at the White House Rose Garden, Trump revealed a fresh 34% tariff on China, stacking on top of a 20% surcharge he already put in place earlier this year. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives warned that tech stocks would likely be under pressure due to these tariffs.

Imports from the EU, another frequent target on Trump’s trade-related ire, face a new 20% tariff, while goods exported from India into the U.S. will have a 26% tariff placed on them. A 24% tariff will imposed on items from Japan as well.

The 10% baseline tariff will go into effect on April 5, while the higher tariffs will begin on April 9.

Trump and White House officials have argued that these moves are necessary to address trade imbalances, bolster government revenue, and reshore lost manufacturing jobs.

"[W]e’re going to start being very wealthy again," Trump said.

However, many economists have warned that the actions will drive up prices and weigh on growth, and businesses have complained that uncertainty around the tariffs has made planning out their operations difficult.

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