Investing.com -- President-elect Trump and senior Republican leaders are preparing for a sweeping "shock and awe" campaign of executive orders starting on his first day in office.
Vice President-elect Vance stated that Trump plans to sign "dozens of executive orders," while Trump reportedly told Senate Republicans in a private meeting that more than 100 orders could be issued beginning on Day 1.
Analysts at Wolfe Research believe Trump’s Day 1 actions will concentrate on immigration, deregulation, bureaucracy reform, and potentially tariffs. These measures align with Trump’s campaign promises and are seen as top priorities for the incoming administration.
Trump’s executive orders in the immigration sector are expected to have the most immediate impact. According to Wolfe, the transition team has hinted at comprehensive plans that could be enacted swiftly, including the potential termination of work authorization for over 3 million individuals on various forms of discretionary status.
“When combined with the end of Biden’s parole programs, we estimate this could create a drag on labor force growth that peaks at over 200k/month in mid-2025,” Wolfe analyst Tobin Marcus said in a note.
Deregulation is also on the agenda, with Trump likely to take steps such as lifting the pause on LNG exports and halting ongoing rulemaking processes like Basel III Endgame. However, the majority of deregulation efforts cannot be executed solely through executive orders and will require a longer rulemaking process.
Moreover, Trump is expected to implement reforms targeting the federal bureaucracy and workforce, including mandatory return-to-office policies and hiring freezes.
Trump’s plans include the controversial "Schedule F" proposal, which would convert certain civil service positions to political appointments.
These changes are expected to be realistic from Day 1 and are likely to survive legal challenges, but Wolfe Research does not anticipate a significant impact on the markets or the overall size of the federal workforce.
Meanwhile, the stance on tariffs remains uncertain, with no new specific plans reported for Day 1. While there have been discussions at the staff level, the absence of concrete Day 1 tariff plans suggests a slower approach to implementing major tariffs, with the possibility of initial surgical steps or ultimatums.
“The main risk to this outlook is if Trump follows through on his Day 1 threats of 25% tariffs against MEX/CAN,” Marcus noted.
“Our base case is still that he declares victory and calls this off, but recent signals from Trump and Canadian officials have made us increasingly concerned,” he added.