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FOREX-Dollar hovers near 3-1/2-week high amid cautious optimism on tariff rollbacks

Published 11/11/2019, 06:35
Updated 11/11/2019, 06:36
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar hovers near 3-1/2-week high amid cautious optimism on tariff rollbacks
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* Dollar holds ground won last week

* Yen, yuan ease on Hong Kong violence, weak China data

* Investor focus on U.S.-China trade deal

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Tom Westbrook and Tomo Uetake

SINGAPORE/TOKYO, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The dollar held near

multi-week highs on Monday amid optimism that the United States

and China would roll back tariffs that have hurt global growth.

The dollar index .DXY against a basket of six major

currencies stood flat at 98.323, just off its 3-1/2-week high of

98.404 touched on late Friday.

Moves were slight as traders kept a wary eye for further

news on the U.S.-China trade war.

Officials from both countries said late last week that a

rollback of some tit-for-tat tariffs had been agreed as part of

a preliminary deal, that has still to be finalised, aimed at

ending the trade war. Even though that was subsequently denied by U.S. President

Donald Trump on Friday, he did not completely rule out a deal

and U.S. benchmark treasuries held above a key support level at

1.9%, buoying the currency. US/N

"He (Trump) has left the door open to some (tariff)

rollbacks," said Rodrigo Catril, a senior FX strategist at

National Australia Bank in Sydney.

"The market has latched on to the idea that there's

definitely the prospect that some will be done," he said.

"Everyone is looking to price in the improvement in the

global growth outlook," he added, pointing out that future

improvement was further supported by an altogether positive

earnings season from U.S. companies.

Against the euro, the greenback was little moved at $1.1023,

reflecting some investor caution that the deal could still

unwind.

Versus the Japanese currency, the dollar slipped 0.25% to

109.03 yen JPY= as some safe-haven buying kicked in on reports

that Hong Kong police opened fire and hit at least one

protester, a fresh escalation of violence as anti-government

demonstrations enter their sixth month. But the yen still stood not too far from 109.49 yen, its

five month-high marked on Thursday.

The Chinese yuan weakened 0.19% at 7.0013 per dollar in

offshore trade CNH=D4 on fresh violence in Hong Kong, where

police fired live rounds at protestors, with Cable TV and other

media reporting at least one person being wounded.

Disappointing economic data also hurt sentiment toward the

yuan, as China's producer prices fell the most in more than

three years in October, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data

showed on Saturday, while the country's consumer prices rose at

their fastest pace in almost eight years. "Trump has claimed China wanted a deal more than he did.

Looking at recent Chinese data, I think he was telling the

truth," said a forex trader in Tokyo.

Prior to market opening, the People's Bank of China set the

midpoint rate CNY=PBOC at a fresh three-month high of 6.9933

per dollar, 12 pips firmer than Friday's fix of 6.9945.

The yuan's decline on Monday followed five straight weeks of

gains, the longest winning streak in nearly nine month,

supported by rising hopes that the world's two largest economies

could strike a deal to de-escalate their trade tension.

With the United States on holiday for Veterans Day, focus is

likely to be on news headlines, British economic data due later

on Monday and a rate-setting meeting of the New Zealand central

bank later in the week.

Britain's economy has lost momentum this year, hurt by a

global downturn due to the U.S.-China trade war as well as

increased uncertainty over its exit from the European Union. It

is forecast to have grown 0.4% for the quarter.

The British pound GBP= , whose fate is now closely tied to

the outcome of an election set for Dec. 12, edged a shade higher

to $1.2792 in Asian trade.

"The latest poll of polls show the Conservative party's lead

is widening," Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Jos Capurso

said in a note. "If this trend continues, GBP will edge higher

in the near term."

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