United Homes Group stock plunges after Nikki Haley, directors resign
Investing.com - Barclays expects the USD/HKD exchange rate to consolidate near or slightly below 7.79, the middle of the 7.75-7.85 convertibility undertaking band, in the near term, according to a research note released Tuesday.
The bank attributes the recent decline in USD/HKD from 7.85 to 7.80 to carry trade unwinding, noting that further broad dollar weakness could add additional downward pressure on the pair and force more unwinding, especially amid increasing IPO activities and southbound Stock Connect flows.
Barclays estimates that approximately 30% of the USD42 billion in long USD/HKD positions (approximately USD200 billion after leverage) accumulated by hedge funds over the past two years has already been unwound due to price action in August and interventions by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
Looking further ahead, Barclays projects the Federal Reserve’s cutting cycle will support the Hong Kong dollar as rate differentials narrow, with USD/HKD expected to trade in a 7.75-7.80 range in 2026, driven by significant inflows into Hong Kong stock markets from the southbound Stock Connect channel.
The bank identifies short-term upside risks to the Hong Kong dollar coming from bunched-up equity inflows and a potential material recovery in Chinese growth or improved US-China relations.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.