Bank of America just raised its EUR/USD forecast
Investing.com - Bank of America forecasts further weakness for the New Zealand dollar in 2025, with a potential rebound not expected until 2026, according to a research note released Wednesday.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s projections have now converged with Bank of America economists’ forecast for the trough of the easing cycle, with RBNZ projecting 2.55% and BofA expecting 2.5%. The RBNZ only reached its estimate of neutral cash rates (3%) on Wednesday, and accommodative policy is unlikely to trigger a sequential rebound in growth and employment until 2026.
Bank of America notes growing upside risks to its year-end 2025 AUD/NZD forecast of 1.11, citing tailwinds from rate differentials. The bank sees terminal Reserve Bank of Australia cash rates approximately 50 basis points higher than current market pricing and expects a declining USD/CNY exchange rate.
The financial institution suggests that further strength in Australian economic data or a significant miss on GDP in September could prompt it to move its first-quarter 2026 forecast of 1.13 to the fourth quarter of 2025.
While weak Chinese economic data in July has weighed on the Australian dollar, Bank of America indicates it’s premature to identify China as a headwind, given strong Chinese data in the first half of 2025 and robust Chinese equity-market returns year-to-date.
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