Gold prices edge higher on raised Fed rate cut hopes
Citi analysts provided insights into the upcoming monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, labor market data, and the Spring Statement, offering a cautious outlook on the Bank of England’s (BoE) actions and market movements. They anticipate that the BoE will maintain its current interest rate, predicting a 7-2 vote in favor of holding rates, with both Mann and Dhingra expected to dissent in a dovish direction.
Citi’s European Economics team suggests that the BoE is caught in a "corridor of uncertainty," balancing the risks of persistent inflation against signs of slowing economic growth. They note that while a weakening labor market might eventually prompt rate cuts, the timing for such actions is uncertain. This suggests a gradual approach to any future easing of monetary policy.
The labor market data, due to be released earlier in the week, is expected to show private sector regular pay growth at 6.1% on a three-month year-over-year basis, slightly below the MPC’s forecast of 6.2% for the first quarter. Citi believes that the market has already accounted for much of the negative news, but caution is likely to persist.
Regarding the Spring Statement scheduled for March 26, Citi analysts expect it to highlight increasing pressure on the government to boost borrowing, especially in light of the need for greater defense spending. They predict that this could serve as a stark reminder of the fiscal challenges ahead.
In the context of recent currency movements, Citi’s UK Rates Strategy team sees an asymmetric opportunity for a stronger market reaction to positive or hawkish developments. They note that the EUR/GBP exchange rate could be poised for a shift, given the technical analysis of the 55-week moving average and historical patterns.
The analysts suggest that the currency pair might revert towards the 0.8250 support area, a level that has been consistently observed since 2019.
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