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FOREX-Dollar drifts lower as trade deal doubts creep in, pound eyes BoE

Published 07/11/2019, 03:26
Updated 07/11/2019, 03:27
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar drifts lower as trade deal doubts creep in, pound eyes BoE
DXY
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* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

* Traders pause to re-assess risks to global outlook

* U.S.-China trade deal proves illusive

* Sterling in narrow range before BoE, general election

By Stanley White

TOKYO, Nov 7 (Reuters) - The dollar inched lower against the

yen on Thursday as lingering doubts about when the United States

and China will sign a preliminary trade deal discouraged traders

from taking big positions.

Sterling traded near a one-week low before a Bank of England

meeting later on Thursday. No change in policy is expected, but

investors are focused on how the BoE will respond to

uncertainties posed by Britain's fraught exit from the European

Union.

Traders are also awaiting results of a general election on

Dec. 12, which will determine whether the ruling Conservative

Party can capture a majority in Parliament and conclude Brexit

by the Jan. 31 deadline.

The dollar was caught off-guard on Wednesday after a senior

official in U.S. President Donald Trump's administration told

Reuters the signing of a so-called "phase one" trade deal could

be delayed until December.

Trump had previously indicated an agreement could be signed

this month.

Many investors remain nervous about the risks to the global

outlook given the Sino-U.S. trade war and Brexit show no signs

of a quick resolution.

"The dollar is looking for direction," said Takuya Kanda,

general manager of the research department at Gaitame.com

Research Institute in Tokyo.

"The main catalyst for dollar buying was expectations that a

U.S.-China trade deal is signed this month. If that is delayed

by one month, that is not such a disappointment, but we need to

see what the Chinese government has to say."

The dollar fell 0.17% on Thursday to 108.80 yen JPY=EBS .

The United States and China have imposed tariffs on each

other's goods in a 16-month long trade war that rippled across

financial markets, slowed global investments and growth.

Investors hope a preliminary trade agreement rolls back at

least some of the tariffs, but negotiations between Washington

and Beijing have been fractious, making an agreement far from

certain.

In the onshore market, the yuan CNY=CFXS fell to 7.0124

per dollar, extending its pull back from a 2-1/2 month high of

6.9880 per dollar reached on Tuesday as optimism about a

near-term resolution to trade frictions wanes.

The dollar index .DXY against a basket of six major

currencies was steady at 97.962.

The pound GBP=D3 traded a $1.2851, close to the lowest

since Oct. 29. Against the euro EURGBP=D3 , sterling was quoted

at 86.13 pence, hemmed into a narrow range.

The consensus view among economists in a Reuters poll is for

the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee to vote 9-0 to keep the Bank

Rate at 0.75%. British inflation is near the BoE's 2% target and the

central bank's updated forecasts on Thursday are likely to show

it is expected to go higher over the next two to three years,

normally a sign that the BoE thinks rate rises will be needed.

With a snap election due on Dec. 12 and a new Brexit

deadline on Jan. 31, expectations are that Governor Mark Carney

will steer away from giving an explicit steer on where interest

rates are heading.

However, a minority of economists are betting one

policymaker will cast the first vote for a rate cut since

borrowing costs were lowered in August 2016, shortly after

Britain voted to leave the EU, as uncertainty about Brexit poses

risks to growth.

The euro EUR=D3 was quoted at $1.1065, little changed on

the day following a mild 0.07% decline on Wednesday.

Data due later on Thursday are forecast to show German

industrial output fell 0.4% in September after a 0.3% increase

in the previous month.

Recent factory surveys have shown Germany's manufacturing

sector slipping into recession. Further disappointing data from

Europe's largest economy is likely pressure the single currency.

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