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FOREX-Dollar falls as selling pressure builds on multiple fronts

Published 18/08/2020, 06:25
© Reuters.
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* Dollar hit 5-1/2-year low against Swiss franc, 5-month low
against yuan
* Kiwi lags broad rally as easing expectations grow
* AUD/NZD crosses 1.10 for the first time in two years
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Tom Westbrook and Eimi Yamamitsu
SINGAPORE/Tokyo, Aug 18 (Reuters) - The dollar extended its
fall to hit fresh lows against a range of currencies on Tuesday,
after a triple blow of retreating yields, soft U.S. economic
data and a dip in safe-haven demand exerted broad selling
pressure.
The yuan CNH=D3 firmed to 6.9246 per dollar, hitting a
level unseen since March 9, despite the Trump administration
flagging a further tightening of restrictions against Chinese
tech gear maker Huawei. CNY/
Against the Swiss franc, the dollar fell more than 0.1% to
fresh 5-1/2 year low of 0.9049 CHF=EBS .
"The background factor for the moves we're seeing today is
the overall weakness of the dollar," said Shinichiro Kadota,
senior strategist at Barclays. "And the Swiss franc strengthened
because of a euro-led decline in the U.S. dollar since July."
The greenback is also poised to re-test multi-month or
multi-year troughs against the euro, pound and Aussie made
earlier in the month.
The euro EUR=EBS last sat at $1.1891, just below a recent
two-year high of $1.1916.
The Aussie AUD=D3 rose 0.12% to $0.7225, near an 18-month
top of $0.7242 hit on Aug. 7, as the Reserve Bank of Australia
reaffirmed the outlook of steady policy.
The Aussie's gains were capped by news China had begun an
anti-dumping investigation into imports of wine from Australia.

Investors have been relieved by a delay in the review of the
U.S.-China trade deal this week, which has left the agreement
standing and reinforced a belief the trade relationship can hold
even amidst conflict on multiple other fronts.
A fresh rally in tech stocks added to the positive mood, and
together with a pullback in U.S. yields and a weak reading in a
U.S. manufacturing survey has many traders sticking to their
bearish convictions on the dollar.
Net bearish bets on the U.S. dollar grew to their largest
since May 2011 last week and spot trade in recent days suggest
the position has only grown further since. "Extended short dollar positions risk a sharp pull back if
the dollar downside stalls further, but for now the negatives
for the dollar are mostly still in place," said analysts at
Singapore's OCBC Bank.
"We are reduced to staying in the game while the music is
playing."
On the data front, the New York Fed's Empire State business
conditions index tumbled to 3.7 in August from 17.2 in July -
far lower than the 15 points forecast by a Reuters survey.
Delinquency rates for residential mortgages also posted the
largest quarterly increase on record. "A high delinquency rate for an extended period can impair
the banking system," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia
currency analyst Joe Capurso.
"An impaired banking system could hold back the U.S.
economic recovery like it did in the aftermath of the (2008
crisis)," he said.
The Japanese yen JPY= rose back past 106-per-dollar to
105.63 after a 2.6 basis point drop in benchmark U.S. 10-year
government bond yields overnight. US/
The British pound GBP=D3 last sat at $1.314 as investors
watch the latest round of Brexit negotiations, with the future
of London's financial institutions' access to the European
market in focus. Against a basket of currencies =USD the dollar sat at an
eight-session low of 92.634.
Among G10 currencies, the kiwi NZD= was the laggard as New
Zealand's largest city remains under lockdown and anticipation
of future monetary easing weighs on the currency.
It last bought $0.6545 and traders said bets on the kiwi
dropping had supported the Aussie as investors sought exposure
to the Aussie/kiwi cross, which is trading at a two-year peak.
"The move has been one way traffic," said Chris Weston, head
of research at Melbourne broker Pepperstone, who is holding for
the ride even though the pair AUDNZD= has hit his price target
of NZ$1.10 per Aussie.

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