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FOREX-Dollar falls, oil-exporter currencies rise after Saudi attacks; yen firms

Published 16/09/2019, 06:19
© Reuters.
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* Attacks on Saudi oil facilities drive risk-off trade

* Dollar weakens as yen, oil-correlated currencies rise

* Fed, BoJ in focus later in the week

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The dollar fell while safe

havens and currencies of oil-producing countries rallied on

Monday, following an attack on Saudi Arabian refining facilities

that disrupted global oil supply and heightened Middle East

tensions.

Oil prices surged nearly a fifth at one point following the

strikes on two plants, including the world's biggest petroleum

processing facility in Abqaiq, which knocked out more than 5% of

global oil supply. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group claimed responsibility for

the damage, but the U.S. has pointed the finger directly at

Iran. The Canadian dollar CAD=D3 rose 0.4% to 1.3233 per dollar.

The Norwegian krone NOK= rose 0.5% to 8.9363 per dollar. Both

currencies often move together with the oil price because the

countries are major oil exporters.

In India, a major importer of crude, the rupee INR= fell

almost 0.7%.

"The natural flow through of higher (oil) prices has seen

the NOK and the CAD outperform, and we'll probable see a better

feel towards the (Russian) rouble later on," said Chris Weston,

head of research at brokerage Pepperstone Group in Melbourne.

The attacks reversed last week's ebullient risk appetite and

prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to tweet that the United

States was "locked and loaded" for a response.

"We've got a beady eye on this and we're prepared to pile

back in to the Japanese yen after last week's repositioning,"

Weston said, adding that while trade was calm, the strikes

presented another geopolitical "what if" to vex markets.

The safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc both firmed. The

yen JPY=EBS rose 0.3% to 107.79 per dollar and the franc rose

0.4% CHF= to $0.9883. Gold XAU= jumped by 1%.

Against a basket of currencies .DXY the dollar edged lower

to 98.162.

Beyond oil, currency markets are awaiting the outcome of

central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan this week and

economic data in Australia and New Zealand that could determine

the rates outlook in the Antipodes.

"Geopolitical risks and central bank rhetoric remain key

drivers of risk this week," Australia and New Zealand Banking

Group analysts said in a note.

On the Brexit front, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's

confidence of sealing a deal to leave the European Union by Oct.

31 applied renewed pressure to the pound. Sterling GBP=D3 fell 0.3 from a seven-week high to hit

$1.2486.

While much of the risk appetite on display last week was

driven by signs of a thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions, few

fresh indications of progress left sentiment fragile.

Data released on Monday showed the slowdown in China's

economy deepened in August, with industrial production growing

at its weakest pace in 17-1/2 years and retail sales weaker than

anticipated.

That added to pressure for stimulus and in offshore trade

the Chinese yuan CNH= weakened 0.25% to 7.0631 per dollar.

In the United States, investors who had begun trimming

expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut on Wednesday

are now certain rates will fall and divided only over how much.

FEDWATCH

As for the Bank of Japan's policy decision on Thursday, a

third of economists polled by Reuters expect stimulus to be

ramped up. But sources say it may be a close call as

policymakers wait till the last minute to assess market reaction

to the Fed's decision hours earlier. Japanese markets are closed on Monday for a public holiday.

The euro EUR=D3 was steady at $1.1073.

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